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Development scale prediction method and system suitable for distributed energy supply system

A forecasting method and distributed technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, character and pattern recognition, etc., can solve the problems of interference and low correlation of forecast results, and achieve the effect of comprehensive installed capacity

Inactive Publication Date: 2020-07-28
GUIZHOU POWER GRID CO LTD
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Using LSSVM as a prediction model, the key to affecting the prediction accuracy is the correct selection of training samples, test samples, and prediction samples, and it is not that the more samples the better, the selection of samples with low correlation will interfere with the prediction results.

Method used

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  • Development scale prediction method and system suitable for distributed energy supply system
  • Development scale prediction method and system suitable for distributed energy supply system
  • Development scale prediction method and system suitable for distributed energy supply system

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Embodiment 1

[0037] The development of a distributed energy supply system is an important measure to alleviate energy shortages, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, improve the security of power grid power supply and the ability to cut peaks and fill valleys. The distributed energy supply system can achieve energy cascade utilization and high energy utilization, but The construction has not been promoted on a large scale across the country, indicating that energy shortages and environmental issues are not the main driving factors of distributed energy supply at this stage; the unit investment of distributed energy supply systems is large and the economic benefits are poor, and only economically developed regions can afford construction The economic pressure brought by the distributed system, therefore, the scale and speed of the development of the distributed energy supply system need to be coordinated with the local economic development.

[0038] refer to Figure 1 to Figu...

Embodiment 2

[0082] refer to Figure 6 and Figure 7 , is the second embodiment of the present invention, which is different from the first embodiment in that it provides a development scale prediction system suitable for distributed energy supply systems, including:

[0083] The data processing center module 100 is used to process the data flow of the predicted system demand and calculate the correlation degree, which includes a selection unit 101 and a conversion unit 102, and the selection unit 101 is used to select the possible influencing factors and correlation degree of the development of the distributed energy supply system , the conversion unit 102 is used to convert historical data to form amplitude-frequency characteristics.

[0084] The analysis module 200 is used for analyzing and researching the impact of research factors on the development of the distributed energy supply system, and judging whether the prediction model reaches the predetermined accuracy.

[0085] The inpu...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a development scale prediction method and system suitable for a distributed energy supply system, and the method comprises the steps: selecting impact factors which may affectthe development of the distributed energy supply system; performing FFT conversion on the impact factors and historical data of the installed capacity of the distributed energy supply system to obtainamplitude-frequency characteristics of the historical data to form an amplitude-frequency characteristic vector; utilizing a correlation analysis strategy to solve the correlation between the influence factor and the amplitude-frequency characteristic vector of the installed capacity; selecting the influence factors with the relevancy ranked in the first 5 and annual data of the installed capacity in the same period, and constructing a training sample, a test sample and a prediction sample; and performing training and parameter optimization on the LSSVM by using the training sample, outputting a prediction model after training is completed, and predicting the installed capacity of the distributed energy supply system by using the prediction model. According to the method, the installed capacity of the distributed energy supply system under the influence of multiple factors can be predicted more comprehensively.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of selection of training samples and prediction samples of LSSVM and a power generation prediction model of a distributed energy supply system, in particular to a development scale prediction method and system applicable to a distributed energy supply system. Background technique [0002] The distributed energy supply system mainly distributed at the user end, as a supplement to the main power supply, can relieve the power demand pressure and reduce the peak-valley load difference. Therefore, the distributed energy supply system has developed rapidly, and the installed capacity has increased year by year. However, the development of distributed energy supply systems is affected by economics, technology, society, weather and a series of factors. Due to the uncertainty of these factors, the development of distributed energy supply systems is also uncertain. It is not conducive to the scientific plannin...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06K9/62G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F18/2411G06F18/214
Inventor 宁楠熊楠吴建国周林波狄睿罗金龙李玉芬杜林任尔珣戴堃邵正义
Owner GUIZHOU POWER GRID CO LTD
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