Method for estimating future change trend of storm axis activity
A technology of changing trends and storms, applied in forecasting, design optimization/simulation, resources, etc., can solve problems such as uncertainty of multi-model prediction results, lack of model selection, and low reliability of prediction results, so as to avoid subjective Sexual factors, reducing uncertainty, reducing the effects of bias
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[0018] The present invention is further explained below:
[0019] The method for predicting the future change trend of storm axis activities of the present invention includes:
[0020] Step 1: Data preprocessing
[0021] Choose a set of atmospheric reanalysis data commonly used in meteorological research as observational data to determine the climate model to be used. The historical test data of the climate model is used to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate historical storm axis activities, and the model’s future scenario data is used Estimate the future trend of storm axis activity. Due to the different horizontal resolutions of different models, in order to better evaluate the simulation capabilities of the models, bilinear interpolation is used to interpolate the data of different models onto the grid of observational data to unify the horizontal resolutions of all models.
[0022] Step 2: Calculate the storm axis observation field and model simulation field
[0023] Accordi...
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