Method for estimating future change trend of storm axis activity

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for estimating a future change trend of storm axis activity. The method comprises the steps of 1) preprocessing data; 2) calculating a storm axis observation field anda mode simulation field; 3) evaluating the simulation capability of the mode; 4) selecting a dominant mode with strong simulation capability; 5) estimating the future change trend of the storm axis activity; and 6) checking the credibility of the multi-mode estimation result. The prediction method can relatively objectively and credibly predict future change trends of storm axis activities in different seasons and different regions. According to the prediction method, a quantitative index for comprehensively evaluating the mode simulation capability is provided, and the advantage mode with high storm axis activity simulation capability can be objectively selected from a plurality of climate modes. According to the estimation method, a method for quantitatively checking the credibility ofthe average estimation result of the multi-mode set is provided, and the uncertainty of the average estimation result of the multi-mode set caused by large difference of the estimation results of different modes is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of climate prediction, and in particular relates to a method for estimating the future variation trend of storm axis activities. Background technique [0002] The mid-latitude daily weather changes are closely related to the moving large-scale high-low pressure system, and the area with relatively active mid-latitude cyclone and anticyclone activities is called the "storm axis". In some regions, more than 90% (85%) of winter (summer) precipitation is associated with storm axis activity. In addition, storm axis activities are closely related to mid-latitude extreme weather events, such as extreme precipitation events, extreme low / high temperature events, and extreme wind events, which have a serious impact on people's production, life and life safety. In recent years, the impact of global warming on the climate system has become increasingly significant, and forecasting the future trend of storm axis activit...

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Problems solved by technology

Many scholars have used a single climate model or the combined average results of multiple climate models to predict the future trend of storm axis activities. The traditional forecasting methods mainly have the following shortcomings: (1) If a single climate model is used to predict the future trend of storm axis activities, the forecasting results will be greatly affected by the model itself, The reliability of the prediction results is not high; (2) If the future trend of storm axis activities is predicted by using the ensemble average results of multiple climate models, it should be considered how to select the storm axis activities from many climate models. The dominant models with strong simulation capabilities are aggregated and averaged, and how to test the credibility of the multi-model forecast results, while the traditional storm axis forecast methods often lack the link of model selection and reliability testing, resulting in multi-model forecast results uncertainty

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