Scene generation method considering multi-energy load timing sequence and correlation

Abstract

The invention discloses a scene generation method considering multi-energy load timing sequence and correlation. The method comprises the following steps: 1) performing scene data normalization processing according to historical data; 2) based on the normalized data, determining a scene clustering number by using a Davies-Bouldin index, and performing scene clustering by using a K-means method; 3)establishing a probability distribution model of the multi-energy load, and fitting distribution parameters by adopting a maximum likelihood estimation method according to the established probabilitydistribution model; 4) analyzing time sequence self-correlation characteristics in different scenes, and generating a scene with self-correlation by adopting an LHS-CD method; 5) extracting scenes from the scene clusters with autocorrelation under different source load categories, combining the scenes to generate a scene set, and calculating the cross correlation of the scene set; and 6) screening out a cross-correlation scene set close to the cross-correlation of the historical data on the MATLAB simulation platform by adopting a particle swarm algorithm to obtain a multi-energy load scene set with time sequence and correlation finally.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of integrated energy and scene generation, in particular to a scene generation method considering the timing and correlation of multi-energy charges. Background technique [0002] With the access of high-penetration renewable power sources and the complexity of power consumption behavior of distribution network users, the randomness and volatility of multi-energy loads pose a huge challenge to the operation, planning and dispatch of power systems. Constructing the uncertainty model of renewable energy and load is the key to realize the safe and stable operation of the integrated energy system, economic dispatch, and reasonable planning of renewable energy. The scenario analysis method can analyze the source and load uncertainty based on the potential multi-energy load scenario set, provide decision-making basis for scheduling, planning and other work, and reduce the negative impact of source and load uncertainty. Exi...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, there is still room for improvement in current scene generation methods

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