Reliability evaluation method for offshore wind power plant and flexible direct current grid-connected system under weather influence

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the reliability of an offshore wind plant and a flexible DC grid-connected system under the influence of weather, and the method is characterized in that the method comprises the following steps: S1, decomposing the offshore wind plant and the flexible DC grid-connected system into a plurality of subsystems; S2, establishing an equivalent failure rate model, an equivalent repair time model and a reliability evaluation model of each subsystem based on the reliability parameters of the elements in each subsystem, wherein the reliability parametersof the elements comprise the failure rate of the fan, the failure rate of the fan is positively related to the wind speed and the lightning stroke evaluation rate, the reliability parameters of the elements further comprise the repair time of each element, and the repair time of the elements is positively related to the wind speed; S3, establishing an autocorrelation MCMC model and a cross-correlation Copula model of the wind speed, and performing reliability evaluation on the offshore wind plant and the flexible DC grid-connected system by adopting a time sequence Monte Carlo method to obtaina reliability index. According to the invention, the reliability evaluation of the offshore wind plant and the flexible DC grid-connected system considering the influence of severe weather is realized.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of reliability assessment of offshore wind farms and flexible direct current transmission systems, and specifically relates to a method of reliability assessment of offshore wind farms and flexible direct grid-connected systems under the influence of weather. Background technique [0002] As energy shortages and environmental pollution problems become increasingly severe, renewable energy sources are generally valued by all countries. As a clean energy with great potential, wind energy has developed rapidly in recent years. Abundant offshore wind energy resources, high annual utilization hours and low noise pollution, have become the main direction of global renewable energy development. According to data from the Global Wind Energy Council, the global installed capacity of offshore wind power will exceed 200 million kilowatts in 2030. Compared with traditional HVDC transmission, the HVDC based on voltage sourc...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, none of the existing studies have established a comprehensive reliability assessment model for offshore wind farms and VSC-HVDC grid-connected systems.

The established model does not consider important factors such as correlation and severe weather, which may lead to optimistic r

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