Urban rail transit network passenger travel scheme presumption method

Abstract

The invention discloses an urban rail transit network passenger travel scheme estimation method. The method is an estimation method for carrying out multi-dimensional matching on a passenger travel scheme based on an urban rail travel scheme travel time threshold. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring pull-in and pull-out card swiping data of an urban rail transit AFC system, train operation data of an ATS system, path information data and travel time data obtained by investigation; and calculating an O-D riding scheme travel time threshold of passenger travel. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, preliminarily screening possible travel schemes of passengers on the basis of two presumptive dimensions, namely a pull-in moment and a pull-out moment; and continuingto increase three dimensions of matching presumption, including the riding shift, the transfer frequency and the walking characteristics, carrying out further trip selection matching presumption, andfinally determining the trip selection of the urban rail transit passengers. According to the method, a theoretical basis can be provided for urban rail transit passenger flow space-time distributioncalculation in a networked operation stage, a network operation coordination decision is optimized, and the management level of the system is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of intelligent transportation and relates to a method for estimating passenger travel plans. Background technique [0002] In recent years, urban rail transit has achieved rapid development in my country with its characteristics of large capacity, speed, punctuality and safety. The rail transit in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other big cities has entered a new stage of networked operation and management. Passenger flow is the basis of urban rail transit network operation management. Scientific prediction and analysis of the distribution of passenger flow on the network is the solution to network operation coordination, train operation diagram compilation, reasonable fare clearing and liquidation, operational risk control and emergency response to emergencies. The premise and basis of a series of important issues. The key to calculating and analyzing the spatio-temporal distribution of the above-mentione...

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Problems solved by technology

The above method has provided a solution for determining a reasonable passenger travel plan for a period of time, but with the continuous expansion of the urban rail transit network scale, the increasingly complex network structure and the diversification of passenger travel behavior, the calculation results of the model are not consistent with the passenger's travel behavior. There are occasional deviations between actual trips

[0004] The reason is that the existing methods are still based on the aggregated probability distribution, and the research on the more accurate calculation of individual passenger travel plans in non-aggregated areas is still insufficient, which affects the accuracy of the calculation results of the spatial-temporal distribution of passenger flow in urban rail transit networks. Unable to meet the refined requirements for passenger flow analysis in the new stage of network operation

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