Construction method of cost prediction model based on overhead line project

Abstract

The invention discloses an overhead line project-based cost prediction model construction method. The method comprises the following steps of: selecting historical cost data of an overhead line project which is completed and put into production within 2-3 years for analysis; on the basis of analyzing main influence factors of overhead line project cost, a data basis is provided for model construction through a principal part analysis method; enabling the training sample data to form a combined prediction model through an algorithm of support vector regression W2 and an algorithm of an artificial neural network W1; if the combined prediction model passes prediction result analysis, obtaining a cost prediction model; in the initial stage of project construction, key factors of a to-be-predicted project are input through the cost prediction model, and a cost prediction value of the project can be obtained. According to the method, the optimized intelligent prediction model is verified, a certain prediction capability is provided for the prediction model of the cost of each sub-item of the new project, and the prediction result is relatively accurate. And the investment prediction work in the project front-end investment plan compilation can be assisted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of construction cost prediction model construction of overhead line engineering, and in particular relates to a method for constructing a cost prediction model based on overhead line engineering. Background technique [0002] In the construction of overhead line engineering projects, the management and control of project cost plays a decisive role in the overall project management. Analyzing the level, structural changes, influencing factors and development trends of construction costs to achieve effective control of construction costs is of great significance for rationally verifying transmission costs, improving grid investment benefits, and strengthening project investment management. [0003] However, due to the many factors affecting the cost of overhead lines, the complex construction environment, and the uneven level of line engineering construction, there are often large differences in the cost of overhead lin...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, due to the many factors affecting the cost of overhead lines, the complex construction environment, and the uneven level of line engineering construction, there are often large differences in the cost of overhead lines under the same voltage level. As far as engineering is concerned, the sample size of comparable overhead line project cost that can be referred to is small, and it is difficult for relevant reviewers of cost projects to review and estimate project cost based on experience and conventional statistical estimation models

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