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An artificial influence weather operation effect evaluation method

A weather modification and operation technology, which is applied in the field of atmospheric science and environmental quality monitoring, and can solve the problems of not taking into account the correlation, unable to give evaluation results, and low practicability of weather modification services.

Active Publication Date: 2021-06-08
NANJING UNIV OF INFORMATION SCI & TECH
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the simple comparative analysis does not take into account the correlation between the selected comparison area and the target area, as well as the influence of natural variability on the evaluation of manual operation effects, so it cannot give a reasonable evaluation result. Less practical for weather modification business
At present, there are few researches on comprehensive testing of weather modification effects, and there is a lack of a practical scientific evaluation method to evaluate the operational effects of weather modification

Method used

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  • An artificial influence weather operation effect evaluation method
  • An artificial influence weather operation effect evaluation method
  • An artificial influence weather operation effect evaluation method

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Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0102] A method for evaluating the operational effect of weather modification in this embodiment is a quantitative evaluation method for the operational effect of artificial weather modification. Evaluation and decision-making provide theoretical basis and technical support. First, using the statistical method of regression analysis of the historical area, the sample data of the characteristic variables in the target area and the comparison area are compared to calculate the correlation. Subsequently, a linear regression equation was established based on the sample data of characteristic variables, and the expected value of the target area in the same period was estimated with the sample values ​​of characteristic variables in the comparison area during the operation period, and the statistical results of the statistical variable changes in the target area were obtained by making a difference. Then, the Monte Carlo simulation random experiment is used to analyze the influence ...

Embodiment 2

[0156] A further optional design of this embodiment is: in this embodiment, the artificial operation effect is greater than the probability t of the natural variability 1 According to the following random experiment:

[0157] First, take the characteristic variables of the non-operation period and the operation period target area obtained in step 1) and the characteristic variables of the non-operation period and the operation period comparison area as experimental samples, and then randomly divide them into two groups A and B, and the number of samples in the two groups same;

[0158] Second, calculate the average values ​​of the characteristic variables of the target area and the comparison area in the two groups A and B;

[0159] Third. Calculate the random double difference RDD (random double difference):

[0160] RDD=(AVE T_A -AVE T_B )-(AVE C_A -AVE C_B )

[0161] in,

[0162] AVE T_A is the average value of the characteristic variable of the target area in grou...

Embodiment 3

[0176] The further optional design of this embodiment is: in this embodiment, the probability t that the artificial operation effect obtained in the regression equation including the influence of natural variability is positive 2 According to the following random experiment:

[0177] First, the characteristic variables of the non-operation period and the operation period target area obtained in step 1) and the characteristic variables of the non-operation period and the operation period comparison area are used as experimental samples, and half of the experimental samples are randomly selected;

[0178] Second, carry out linear regression to the selected experimental sample, use the characteristic variable of the comparison area in the selected experimental sample as an independent variable, and use the characteristic variable of the target area in the selected experimental sample as a dependent variable to establish a new regression equation;

[0179] Third, bring the charact...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an artificial influence weather operation effect evaluation method, which utilizes a statistical test method to provide an operation effect evaluation method for artificial influence weather operation by integrating different influence factors on the basis of objective observation data and strict reliability analysis, and has a solid theoretical basis. According to the method, a regional historical regression analysis method is adopted for testing the efficacy and accuracy which are higher than those of a sequence test method and a non-paired rank sum test method, and the result has higher credibility by applying significance test for many times; according to the method, the Monte Carlo simulation random test is used for analyzing the influence of the natural change rate on the statistical result, so that the evaluation of the operation effect is more objective; according to the method, the specific influence of the artificial influence weather is quantitatively analyzed through the entropy weight method and the first-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, so that the artificial influence weather effect is visualized, and the practicability and readability of the result are improved.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention relates to an operation effect evaluation method for man-made weather modification, and belongs to the technical fields of atmospheric science and environmental quality monitoring. Background technique: [0002] Artificial weather modification is to reduce or avoid meteorological disasters by artificially influencing the physical and chemical processes of the local atmosphere through scientific and technological means. Cream etc. [0003] At present, we use sowing catalysts (such as silver iodide, dry ice, hygroscopic catalysts, electrostatic catalysts, etc.) The effect of homework mainly depends on statistical analysis. Usually, the area where manual work is performed is taken as the target area, and a suitable comparison area is selected outside the target area, and the observed characteristic variables (such as visibility, rainfall rate, snowfall rate, etc.) The effect of the job. However, the simple comparative analysis does not ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F17/11G06Q10/06G06N7/00G06F111/08G06F119/02
CPCG06F30/20G06F17/11G06Q10/06393G06F2111/08G06F2119/02G06N7/01
Inventor 韩思蒙景晓琴李玥婕章雨桐刘悦萱闫栀琦杨璟刘玉宝
Owner NANJING UNIV OF INFORMATION SCI & TECH
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