Method for short-term prediction of salt tide at water intake in tidal river region

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for short-term prediction of salt tide at a water intake in a tidal river region. The method comprises the following steps of: analyzing the following influencing factors: the flow of upstream hydrologic monitoring stations and the tide level difference, water unavailable hours and average chloride concentration of the water intake in a day so as to establish a BP-RAGA coupled neural network salt tide forecasting model and predict the water unavailable hours and average chloride concentration of the water intake in the next day; and determining the water available hours and amount of each water intake on the basis of the prediction so as to determine the time and space distribution of raw water intaking amount of the tidal river in the next day and finally draw up a dispatching predetermined plan of a raw water system by combining an optimal dispatching module of the raw water system, so that the safe operation of the raw water system and safe urban water supply are ensured. Compared with the conventional prediction systems, the method can dynamically determine the weight of each influencing factor in the prediction module by fully using existing information, improve the sensitivity and precision of the prediction and have lower rate of missing report and false report.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of water supply and drainage of municipal engineering, and relates to a method for predicting the short-term change of the salt tide at the water intake in the tidal river area according to the impact of the salt tide invasion on the water intake of the tidal river area. Background technique [0002] Tidal rivers are the main source of water for coastal cities. The runoff of tidal rivers changes with the seasons. During the dry season from October to April and May of the following year, the runoff is much smaller than that in the wet season, and the tidal rivers are seriously affected by the salt tide. , For example, the estuary areas of the Yangtze River and the Pearl River are often attacked by salt tides during the annual dry season. According to the national water source water quality standard "Surface Water Environmental Quality Standards" (GB 3838-2002), when the salinity chloride ion concentration (hereinafter ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0015] Actual effect: By applying the above techniques, the change trend of salinity in the next hour can be predicted, but for the raw water pumping station, the time scale of the prediction model is too short, and it cannot reflect the water availability of the day, which lacks guiding significance

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