Wind speed prediction method and apparatus based on NARX neural network

A neural network and wind speed prediction technology, applied in the field of wind speed prediction based on NARX neural network, can solve the problems of failure to make full use of historical data and inconvenient wind speed prediction methods, and achieve real-time measurement, improve wind energy capture ability, and high learning Effects of efficiency and training effectiveness

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-05-18
GUODIAN UNITED POWER TECH
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Problems solved by technology

Patent CN103927460A, a short-term wind speed prediction method for wind farms based on RBF, uses RBF neural network, normalizes and denormalizes input and output data, takes temperature, humidity, air pressure and wind direction as input, but f...

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  • Wind speed prediction method and apparatus based on NARX neural network
  • Wind speed prediction method and apparatus based on NARX neural network
  • Wind speed prediction method and apparatus based on NARX neural network

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Embodiment 1

[0031] Such as figure 1 As shown, a kind of wind speed prediction method based on NARX neural network of the present embodiment comprises the following steps:

[0032] Step A, collect the historical data of relevant parameters required for wind speed prediction. The relevant parameters include wind speed, pitch angle, rotational speed and power. According to the aerodynamic model of the fan, it can be known that the power is a function of wind speed, pitch angle and rotational speed. Therefore, the collection The above data for network training is as follows:

[0033] P m =1 / 2×C P (λ,β)ρπR 2 v 3 =f(v,ω,β)

[0034] Step B, normalize the collected data to prepare for neural network training, according to the following formula:

[0035] y=(ymax-ymin)*(x-xmin) / (xmax-xmin)+ymin

[0036] Among them, ymax and ymin are the maximum and minimum values ​​of the data range after normalization; xmax and xmin are the maximum and minimum values ​​of the data before normalization; y is...

Embodiment 2

[0043] Such as figure 2 As shown, a kind of wind speed forecasting device based on NARX neural network of the present embodiment includes acquisition module, processing module, training module and calculation output module, specifically as follows:

[0044] The collection module collects historical data of relevant parameters required for wind speed prediction, and the relevant parameters include wind speed, pitch angle, rotational speed and power. According to the aerodynamic model of the wind turbine, it can be known that the power is a function of wind speed, pitch angle and rotational speed, so collecting the above data for network training is as follows:

[0045] P m =1 / 2×C P (λ,β)ρπR 2 v 3 =f(v,ω,β)

[0046] The processing module normalizes the collected data and prepares for neural network training according to the following formula:

[0047] y=(ymax-ymin)*(x-xmin) / (xmax-xmin)+ymin

[0048] Among them, ymax and ymin are the maximum and minimum values ​​of the da...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a wind speed prediction method and an apparatus based on an NARX neural network. The method includes: acquiring historical data of related parameters required by wind speed prediction, wherein the related parameters including wind speed, pitch angle, rotating speed, and power; performing normalization processing of the acquired data; inputting the processed data to the NARX neural network as a training sample for training; and inputting a test sample to the trained NARX neural network, performing reverse normalization of an output value, and obtaining a practical prediction value. According to the method and the apparatus, the model is built for the prediction of the wind speed by employing the NARX neural network, input parameters of the network are selected by employing formulas and principles of fan aerodynamics, the prediction is convenient, the accuracy is high, the wind energy capturing capability and the generating capacity are increased, and the method and the apparatus are applicable to be promoted and applied.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind power control, in particular to a wind speed prediction method and device based on a NARX neural network (non-linear autoregressive neural network). Background technique [0002] With the support of national industrial policies, China's wind power industry has experienced rapid growth in the past ten years. China has become a veritable wind power country. The great development of wind power and renewable energy is an irreversible trend in the future. In the past few years, the focus of wind power development has shifted from high wind speed to low wind speed areas. Through independent innovation, Chinese wind power complete machine enterprises have actively developed new models with larger unit capacity, larger impellers, lower wind speeds, and smarter models. Improve the development potential of wind resources and the level of wind energy utilization. Ultra-low wind speed fans with higher wind ener...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/08
CPCG06Q10/04G06N3/088G06Q50/06
Inventor 霍峰张雪松刘忠朋纪国瑞代海涛冯健
Owner GUODIAN UNITED POWER TECH
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