A Sequential Simulation Method for Power Grid Reliability Based on Conditional Kernel Density Estimation
A technology of kernel density estimation and simulation method, which is applied in calculation, electrical digital data processing, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of low calculation efficiency and obvious calculation consumption, and achieve the effect of reducing simulation time
Inactive Publication Date: 2019-02-19
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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Problems solved by technology
Although the sequential Monte Carlo method has these obvious advantages, its computational efficiency is much lower than that of the state enumeration method and the non-sequential Monte Carlo method.
Therefore, for the sequential Monte Carlo method, when the system load level or load fluctuation law changes, the calculation cost of the re-evaluation process will be more obvious
Existing methods such as pseudo-sequential methods, quasi-sequential methods and accelerated sequential methods based on cross-entropy can improve the computational efficiency of sequential methods to a certain extent, but it is still necessary to re-evaluate system reliability after load changes. Perform extensive optimal power flow calculations
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[0035] Example: such as figure 1 , 2 Shown:
[0036] 1. The MDP status parameter of the system status.
[0037] The maximum load capacity M, the average duration D of the system state and the healthy load percentage P are used as the MDP state parameters describing the system state.
[0038] The maximum load capacity is a random variable closely related to factors such as random failures of system equipment, network topology, operating constraints, and operating strategies. It can represent the limit of the load-carrying capacity of the power generation and transmission system. coupled. The per unit value of the maximum load capacity of the system is obtained by taking the annual maximum load (annual peak load) level of the system as the reference power, that is, the maximum proportion of the synchronous growth of the load of each node of the system. The optimization model for obtaining the maximum load capacity of the system is as follows:
[0039] max M(x) (1)
[0040]...
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The invention provides a power grid reliability sequential simulation method based on conditional kernel density estimation. The method adopts a maximal load capacity, a system state average duration time and a sound load percentage as MDP state parameters of system states. One time of traditional sequential simulation is performed under the condition of an annual maximal load level of the system, the MDP state parameters of all system states are used as MDP state parameter samples, and conditional probability density distribution is established. When the system load level or a load variation rule changes, the system states are extracted according to the conditional probability density distribution of the original MDP state parameters, computation is implemented by using the MDP state parameters under each system state, and thus the loss of load and the duration time of each system state are obtained, and reliable indexes are formed. According to the method, the system states are extracted according to the conditional distribution of the MDP parameters, and only the sizes of the maximal load capacity and the load under each state need to be compared, with no need to implement optimal power flow computation on each system state, and thus the sequential simulation time is greatly reduced.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system reliability evaluation, in particular to a sequential simulation method for power grid reliability based on conditional kernel density estimation. Background technique [0002] The power system reliability evaluation is to carry out a probability quantitative evaluation of the system's ability to meet the load demand, taking into account random equipment failures and load random changes, and comprehensively reveal the system's ability to meet the load power and electricity demand through various probability measurement indicators . [0003] In power generation system reliability evaluation, power generation capacity is used to describe the power supply capacity of the system state, and the load loss of each system state can be obtained by comparing the power generation capacity of each system state with the system load, thereby forming a reliability index. Moreover, due to the decoupling characteristi...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/367
Inventor 张林吕跃春刘欣宇金黎明陈涛周宁赵渊耿莲元一平
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA