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Bayesian water quality risk prediction method for landscape lakes

A prediction method and Bayesian model technology, applied in prediction, general water supply saving, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as inaccurate prediction of mechanism models, achieve good prediction accuracy and reduce algal blooms.

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-01-18
TIANJIN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In order to solve the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention provides a Bayesian water quality risk prediction method for landscape lakes, which overcomes the inaccurate prediction of mechanism models in the assessment and management of landscape lake water bodies in the prior art

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  • Bayesian water quality risk prediction method for landscape lakes
  • Bayesian water quality risk prediction method for landscape lakes
  • Bayesian water quality risk prediction method for landscape lakes

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Embodiment Construction

[0023] The method for predicting the risk of eutrophication of landscape lakes of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the embodiments and accompanying drawings.

[0024] The eutrophication risk prediction method of the landscape lake of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0025] 1) For data monitoring and collection, it is composed of several telemetry and remote transmission terminals, which are used to collect relevant physical and chemical index data of the landscape lake inflow and outflow monitoring points. Indicators to be monitored and collected include: ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, phosphate, chlorophyll and dissolved oxygen concentration;

[0026] 2) The data is transmitted to the server through the communication system; the physical and chemical index data monitored online and the basic process conditions are stored in the database in time series. Establish a server to control the data monitoring and ...

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Abstract

The eutrophication risk prediction method of landscape lakes of the present invention establishes a probability prediction model of eutrophication risk of landscape lakes through the joint use of dynamic model equations and Bayesian statistical methods. It has been verified that the prediction accuracy of the model is good (the accuracy is higher than 80%), so that researchers can timely and accurately predict the eutrophication risk of landscape lakes when faced with changes in the water quality of landscape lakes. By comparing the predicted distribution of water quality in landscape lakes with different water inflows, it is pointed out that the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients is the main factor affecting the risk of eutrophication in landscape lakes. Combined with risk calculations, the countermeasures for the eutrophication risk levels of landscape lakes in different water inflows are preliminarily drawn up. When the landscape lakes face the risk of eutrophication, reasonable measures can be taken to ensure the water quality of the landscape lakes and reduce the algal blooms caused by eutrophication. The invention can also provide a certain reference for the water quality management of landscape lakes.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the establishment of a method for predicting the risk of eutrophication of landscape lakes, in particular to a method for predicting the risk of eutrophication of landscape lakes using a Bayesian method, which can provide a basis for the water quality of influent water in landscape lakes. Background technique [0002] Eutrophication is usually a process in which a large amount of pollutants are discharged into the water body to accelerate the production of organic matter (especially algae). Eutrophication is becoming more and more serious in rivers, lakes and seas all over the world and leads to the deterioration of the water environment, especially in landscape lakes. In order to prevent phytoplankton blooms caused by eutrophication, the assessment and management of landscape lake water bodies are very important. In the assessment and management of landscape lake water, the mechanism model is used to explain the ecological pro...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06N7/00
CPCG16C20/70G06N7/01Y02A20/152
Inventor 成龙彭森杨立焜吴卿赵新华
Owner TIANJIN UNIV
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