GM (1,1) model transformer fault predicting method

Abstract

The invention discloses a GM (1,1) model transformer fault predicting method. The method includes the following steps that 1, firstly, dissolved gas in transformer oil forms an original systematic characteristic data sequence X (00) according to time; 2, the original systematic characteristic data sequence X (00) is subjected to single exponential smoothing operation to obtain a sequence X (0), and the sequence X (0) is subjected to single accumulated generating operation to obtain a sequence X (1); 3, according to the sequence X (1) obtained in the step 2, a grey differential equation is established, the grey action quantity of grey prediction is calculated, the grey prediction is conducted on the dissolved gas in the transformer oil, and a first-order prediction model, shown in the description, of the dissolved gas in the transformer oil is obtained; 4, the first-order prediction model shown in the description is subjected to single inverse accumulated generating, an original sequence predicting value of a corresponding variable is restored, an error test is conducted on the model, and an optimal model for transformer fault prediction is obtained. The GM (1,1) model transformer fault predicting method is simple and easy to implement, detection results are reliable, and the method has great application value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of transformer fault detection, in particular to a GM (1,1) model transformer fault prediction method. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of my country's electric power industry, the power system is developing in the direction of ultra-high voltage, large power grid, large capacity, and automation. From power generation, power supply to power consumption, an inseparable whole has been formed. Failure in any link may cause a chain reaction. lead to the collapse of the entire system. Therefore, it is very necessary to maintain and use the existing electrical equipment and improve the operational reliability of the equipment. [0003] Transformer is one of the most important electrical equipment in the power system. Once a fault or accident occurs, it will take a long time to repair and cause serious losses and impacts. In recent years, although the operation reliability of transformers h...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Transformers are one of the most important electrical equipment in the power system. Once a fault or accident occurs, it will take a long time to repair and cause serious losses and impacts.

In recent years, although the operation reliability of transformers has been improved due to the improvement of materials, design methods and manufacturing technologies, due to some unpredictable external reasons or problems in usage methods and operation and maintenance, various types of transformers still occur. failure or accident

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