Rail traffic passenger flow evacuation demand prediction method under sudden events

A technology for rail transit and emergencies, applied in forecasting, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., to achieve the effect of simple algorithm, complete method and high calculation efficiency

Active Publication Date: 2018-11-20
TONGJI UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Its patent is limited in the actual use process: the output result of its patent is the inbound passenger flow under the influence of the emergency, and it needs to use the corresponding data under the emergency to carry out detailed information on passenger selection behavior under the emergency. utility evaluation

Method used

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  • Rail traffic passenger flow evacuation demand prediction method under sudden events
  • Rail traffic passenger flow evacuation demand prediction method under sudden events
  • Rail traffic passenger flow evacuation demand prediction method under sudden events

Examples

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Embodiment 1

[0133] Example background: Using the real network information and operation data of Shanghai rail transit as input, it is assumed that rail transit stations 39, 40, 41, and 42 are interrupted by an emergency. The emergency occurs at 8:00 in the morning peak and lasts for 30 minute. The algorithm of the present invention is used to predict the evacuation demand of the whole network under the emergency, and the results obtained are as follows Figure 5 as shown, Figure 5 The generation, accumulation and dissipation curves of evacuation demand at the main stranded sites of the whole network are depicted in this scenario. The peak retention value and the end of retention time are marked in the figure.

[0134] From Figure 5 It can be seen from the figure that after an emergency, the detention is more serious, that is, the most intensive evacuation needs include the terminal stations (stations 12, 43, 117, 219), the interruption stations themselves (stations 39, 41, 42), and t...

Embodiment 2

[0136] Example background: Using the real network information and operation data of Shanghai rail transit as input, it is assumed that the rail transit stations 39, 40, 41, and 42 are interrupted under an emergency, and the emergency occurs at 12:00 during the off-peak period, and the duration 30 minutes. The algorithm of the present invention is used to predict the evacuation demand of the whole network under the emergency, and the results obtained are as follows Figure 6 as shown, Figure 6 The generation, accumulation and dissipation curves of evacuation demand at the main stranded sites of the whole network are depicted in this scenario. The peak retention value and the end of retention time are marked in the figure.

[0137] From Figure 6 It can be seen from the figure that after an emergency, the detention is more serious, that is, the terminal stations (stations 12, 43, 117, 88, 204) with the highest intensity of evacuation demand, followed by the interrupted stati...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a rail traffic passenger flow evacuation demand prediction method under sudden events. The method comprises the following steps of 1) acquiring a normal short-time traffic demand sample set according to historical ticket card data of a rail traffic automatic toll collection system, and based on the normal short-time traffic demand sample set, carrying out multi-step prediction by adopting a mixed prediction model based on principal component analysis to obtain a prediction result of a normal short-time metro travel requirement; 2) establishing a rail traffic network directed graph according to a topological relation of a rail traffic network; 3) distributing a rail traffic travel OD to obtain a distribution matrix F; 4) according to the characteristics and prior information of the sudden events, in combination with the prediction result, obtaining a calculation formula of evacuation requirements of all stations during the event influence period; and 5) acquiring spatiotemporal evolution of the evacuation requirements during the influence period of the sudden events through simulation, and acquiring a peak retention value. Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages of being high in operability, high in practicability, capable of being directly applied, complete and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of emergency management of public transportation emergencies, in particular to a method for predicting the demand for evacuation of rail transit passenger flows under emergencies. Background technique [0002] In recent years, various emergencies (including production incidents, operational accidents, extreme weather, social public incidents and terrorist attacks, etc.) have occurred frequently, coupled with the fragile transportation system, will cause many adverse effects, including network traffic congestion, complete interruption , varying degrees of property damage and even casualties. This has severely reduced the operational reliability and carrying capacity of the transportation system to a large extent, and has become a severe challenge in the transportation field at this stage. [0003] Short-term traffic demand forecasting is one of the research hotspots in the field of transportation. Its prediction resul...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F17/30
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26
Inventor 戴晓晴孙立军涂辉招时恒
Owner TONGJI UNIV
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