Stochastic programming method of water resources adapted to climate change

Abstract

The invention discloses a water resources stochastic planning method for adapting to climate change belonging to the technical field of water resources management, which comprises the following steps:A, coupling statistical downscaling method and hydrological model to predict the available water resources amount in a basin on the basis of future climate change data; B, coupling statistical downscaling method and hydrological model. B, take that maximization of water resource utilization benefit as the goal, taking the available water resource quantity, the water resource demand quantity, theecological water use protection, the technical requirement and so on as the constraint condition, constructs the optimized allocation model of water resources. C, that optimization model is disassemble into an upper linear sub-model and a lower linear sub-model by adopt an interval interactive algorithm, and the optimization solution of the model is carried out. The invention can comprehensively consider the social economic objective and the ecological protection, predict the water resources evolution trend under the climate change background, provide more scientific and reliable data input for the sustainable water resources regulation and control, and provide more robust decision support for the water resources manager.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of water resources management, and in particular relates to a random planning method for water resources adapting to climate change. Background technique [0002] The rational control of water resources plays an important role in the development and utilization of water resources, and the optimal allocation of water resources is an important method to rationally control water sources to different users. The traditional optimal allocation scheme of water resources mainly focuses on the social and economic functions of water resources and strives to maximize economic benefits, ignoring the ecological water requirements inside and outside the river and downstream. In addition, the traditional water resources optimal allocation technology is mainly based on the analysis of historical data, using statistical or empirical methods to predict the amount of water resources, paying more attention to past and current r...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the past, the impact of climate change on water resources was mainly focused on assessing the impact of climate change on water resource security, or macroscopically interpreting water resource adaptation strategies to deal with climate change from the perspective of economics and engineering. However, how to scientifically optimize the allocation of water resources in response to climate change and achieve sustainable development of water resources development and utilization has not given a specific and effective feasible plan

In addition, the basin water resource system is a dynamic and uncertain complex system; due to the randomness of natural processes, the amount of water resources is full of random uncertainties; because of the subjectivity of human understanding of the world, the acquisition of data and the construction of models There are imprecisions

However, traditional water resource systems rarely study the impact of climate change on water resource allocation under uncertain conditions, and lack models that can effectively reflect system dynamics, multivariate, time-space and other characteristics. Important Bottlenecks in Configuration Studies

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