Two-dimensional drought disaster evaluation method under hydrological cycle variation driving

Abstract

The invention discloses a two-dimensional drought disaster evaluation method under hydrological cycle variation driving. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, collecting basin meteorological and hydrological data; based on the M global climate modes, acquiring a future meteorological sequence through a quantile deviation correction method, and considering the influence of global climate changes on the future drought; adopting a Budyko equation to consider the hydrothermal balance of basin water circulation, taking the characteristic parameters of a Fourier formula as covariables,and considering the influence of human underlying surface activity. A two-variable drought event joint probability distribution function under a non-consistency condition is constructed, and a self-adaptive non-consistency two-variable drought disaster assessment method based on hydro-thermal coupling balance under the comprehensive driving of climate change and underlying surface human activities is provided based on a most possible combination mode of drought duration and intensity. Underlying surface conditions and non-consistency characteristics of hydrological series are considered, andan important reference basis with high operability can be provided for watershed water resource management and planning.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological disaster assessment, in particular to a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method driven by hydrological cycle variation. Background technique [0002] Drought disaster is one of the most common natural disasters in the world, which seriously threatens food security, water supply security and ecological security. my country is one of the areas most affected by drought, and it is of great practical significance to deeply understand its development law and impact mechanism. Due to the random nature of its occurrence, scholars at home and abroad usually describe its risk quantitatively through hydrological frequency analysis methods. For example, Yuan Chao et al. (2008) discussed the probability distribution and recurrence characteristics of extreme drought duration based on analytical and simulation methods. However, this method is based on the traditional univariate frequency analysi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention proposes a two-dimensional drought disaster assessment method driven by hydrological cycle variation, which is used to solve or at least partly solve the problem in the prior art that it is difficult to accurately reflect the non-uniform change characteristics of the hydrological process under the changing environment, resulting in inconsistency in the assessment effect. good technical questions

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