Lightning warning and forecasting method and system

Abstract

The present invention provides a lightning early warning and forecasting method, comprising: S1, determining the start time of the forecast, acquiring the lightning model product data, lightning observation data, and meteorological observation data before the start time of the forecast; S2, repeating Step S1, respectively forming a lightning model product data sample set, a lightning activity data sample set, and a meteorological observation data sample set; S3, performing sample training to form an artificial intelligence model; S4, obtaining the lightning model product data in the period to be predicted and the time before the start of the forecast The meteorological observation data is input into the artificial intelligence model of step S3 to obtain the lightning activity information of the time period to be predicted. The invention also provides a lightning warning and forecasting system for realizing the method. Adopting the method and system of the present invention can overcome the inconvenience of separate operation of lightning impending warning and short-term forecast caused by adopting different methods and technical routes in the prior art, and realize lightning impending warning and short-term forecasting in an integrated manner.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of weather forecasting, in particular to a lightning warning and forecasting method and system. Background technique [0002] Because of its high voltage, high current, strong electromagnetic radiation and other characteristics, lightning activities are usually very destructive, causing heavy casualties and property losses. In order to reduce the losses caused by such lightning disasters, an important means is to carry out short-term forecast (2-12 hours) and near-warning (0-2 hours) of lightning activities. [0003] The existing short-term forecast of lightning activities is basically based on numerical forecasting models, mainly including two methods. The first method can be called a diagnostic method, which uses model parameters closely related to lightning activities to forecast lightning activities. For example, parametric formulas for lightning activity and vertical airflow or ice-phase content in the c...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Limited by the current level of theoretical research, there are still deficiencies in the application of these methods. For example, for lightning activity forecasting, the short-term lightning forecast based on numerical models has an essential dependence on the accuracy of the model itself, especially extreme Rely on the accuracy of cloud simulation, and in the numerical model of normal operation, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the accuracy of cloud simulation; for lightning impending warning, or a single data is not enough to provide enough information to indicate lightning activities, Or the multi-data fusion method is too simple, and it is difficult to mine the deep-level relationship between different data and lightning activities

Ultimately, the current lightning early warning and forecasting has problems such as low short-term forecast accuracy and small improvement space for impending warning.

At the same time, due to different methods, the current lightning nowcasting and short-term forecasting are usually two independent systems, which cannot meet the requirements of meteorological seamless forecasting

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