System and method for stochastic aircraft flight-path modeling

Abstract

Stochastic models of aircraft flight paths and a method for deriving such models from recorded air traffic data. Each stochastic model involves identifying the flight plan for one or more aircraft; identifying important parameters from each flight plan, such as aircraft type, cruise altitude, and airspeed; optionally identifying flight plan amendments for each flight; representing each route of flight as a series of navigational fixes; representing at least one aircraft flight parameter probabilistically; modeling realistic differences in at least one dimension between each planned route of flight and the flight path as it might actually be flown; and communicating the modeled deviations or simulated flight paths to the user. At least one aircraft flight parameter is represented as a random variable with a particular statistical distribution, such as a normal (Gaussian), Laplacian, or logistic distribution; or with a more complex algorithm containing one or more random elements. The modeled flight parameters may be any of lateral position, longitudinal position, climb altitude, descent altitude, climb airspeed, descent airspeed, cruise airspeed, cruise altitude transition, or response time to a flight plan amendment.

Description

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION [0001] 1. Field of the Invention [0002] The present invention relates to decision support tools for air traffic control (ATC) and to simulation and modeling of air traffic. [0003] 2. Related Art [0004] In modern ATC systems, operational personnel use various decision support tools (DSTs) for aircraft route planning and for keeping aircraft safely separated as they move from origin to destination. Many of these tools include a trajectory modeling function to predict the future positions and altitudes of aircraft. Examples of such DSTs in the United States include the Collaborative Routing Coordination Tools (CRCT), the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS), En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM), the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS), and the User Request Evaluation Tool (URET). Some of these tools are in operational use, while others are currently being used as development platforms for future ATC capabilities. [0005] CRCT is the prototype of a...

AI Technical Summary

Benefits of technology

[0012] The present invention includes a set of stochastic aircraft flight-path models and a method of deriving such models from recorded air traffic data. The use of these models substantially obviates one or more of the disadvantages of the related art.

Problems solved by technology

The use of these models substantially obviates one or more of the disadvantages of the related art.

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