Correcting method of layer load prediction model of power distribution network

Abstract

The invention relates to a correcting method of a layer load prediction model of a power distribution network. According to the correcting method, the layer load prediction model of the power distribution network comprises a scheduling layer, a transformer substation layer, a transformer substation bus layer, a medium voltage circuit outlet layer, a medium voltage circuit section and a user layer (a node layer on a medium voltage circuit), and incidence relations of load prediction results between the layers are established; and a method for correcting the load prediction results is provided on the basis of the incidence relations. In the method, a correction factor is obtained by historical measured data according to the incidence relation between an upper layer and a lower layer, and in load prediction, the upper-layer load prediction result and the corresponding correction factor are adopted to correct the lower-layer load prediction value. The method disclosed by the invention effectively overcomes the problem that the load prediction results between different layers in the conventional load prediction are not matched, the load prediction precision can be improved, and a more precise and reliable load prediction result is provided for the operational analysis and scientific decision making of the intelligent power distribution network, which is conductive to the safe, reliable and economical operation of the intelligent power distribution network.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a correction method, in particular to a correction method of a hierarchical load forecasting model of a distribution network. Background technique [0002] Power load forecasting, as an important task of power system scheduling, power consumption, planning, and planning, can provide a forecast for power generation, so that changes in power generation output can be estimated in advance, and economical and reasonable arrangements for the start and stop of power generation can be made. At the same time, accidents can be predicted and prevented. Power grid status assessment, safety warning, economic operation, etc. provide important guarantees. In the previous distribution network load forecasting, it is generally only for large power supply areas, such as forecasting the load of a substation, the load of a county, etc., and rarely predicting the load of a circuit and its nodes. With the development of distribution network automat...

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Problems solved by technology

In the previous distribution network load forecasting, it is generally only for large power supply areas, such as forecasting the load of a substation, the load of a county, etc., and rarely predicting the load of a circuit and its nodes

With the development of distribution network automation, the access of distributed power sources at the user end, and the need for economical, reliable, and efficient operation of the power grid, the load prediction of each line and each node on the line is becoming more and more important. , Load forecasting of sub-nodes; and load forecasting usually has errors, and the smaller the forecasting range, the greater the error. In practical applications, the sum of the forecasted loads of sub-nodes usually does not match the forecasted load of upper nodes. Happening

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