Nen River drainage basin typical region water ecology risk assessment method based on system dynamics decision model

A system dynamics and decision-making model technology, applied in the field of water ecological risk assessment in typical regions of the Nenjiang River Basin, can solve the problem that there is no effective method for the water ecological risk assessment in the Nenjiang River Basin, and achieve the effect of accelerating practical engineering applications.

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-01-06
松辽流域水资源保护局松辽流域水环境监测中心
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Problems solved by technology

Moreover, there is no effective method for water ec

Method used

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  • Nen River drainage basin typical region water ecology risk assessment method based on system dynamics decision model
  • Nen River drainage basin typical region water ecology risk assessment method based on system dynamics decision model
  • Nen River drainage basin typical region water ecology risk assessment method based on system dynamics decision model

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0047] Specific implementation mode one: a kind of water ecological risk assessment method based on the system dynamics decision-making model of the present implementation mode in the typical area of ​​the Nenjiang River Basin, it is carried out according to the following contents:

[0048] Through the system dynamics decision-making model, the tributary inflow, non-point source discharge, upstream water and sewage discharge factors that affect the amount of pollution sources entering the Nierji Reservoir are simulated to reduce the ecological risk of the reservoir through the system dynamics decision-making model. Realize plan decision-making, and evaluate the water ecological risk status at different points in the lake reservoir in different periods on the basis of the water ecological risk index system, build a Bayesian network sample space based on Netica software, and calculate the impact of different indicators The probability of occurrence of ecological risk to a certain...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0049] Specific implementation mode two: the difference between this implementation mode and specific implementation mode one is: the described formula for discharging sewage along the river is:

[0050] PSICODNJ=PSICOD×PSICODCR

[0051] PSICOD=IGDP×CODpIGDP×ICODDR

[0052] In the formula, PSICODNJ is the amount of COD entering the river from the Laba River sewage outlet of the Nen River;

[0053] PSICOD is the discharge volume of Laba River sewage outlet in Nenjiang County;

[0054] PSICODCR is the river discharge coefficient of industrial point source COD;

[0055] CODpIGDP is the COD emission of industrial added value per 10,000 yuan

[0056] ICODDR is the ratio of COD discharged from the Laba River sewage outlet to the COD discharged from industrial point sources in Nenjiang County. Others are the same as in the first embodiment.

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0057] Embodiment 3: This embodiment differs from Embodiment 1 in that: the upper reaches of the Nierji Reservoir, the main sewage discharge points in the Nenjiang main stream are the discharge of domestic sewage from the sewage treatment plant in Nenjiang County and the industrial wastewater from the sewage outlet of the Laba River in Nenjiang County Emissions, both of which come from the socio-economic development of Nenjiang County, are affected by the population and socio-economic development of Nenjiang County. Others are the same as in the first embodiment.

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Abstract

The invention discloses a Nen River drainage basin typical region water ecology risk assessment method based on a system dynamics decision model, and relates to the Nen River drainage basin typical region water ecology risk assessment method. The method comprises the following steps: simulating different treatment schemes for tributary afflux, nonpoint source discharge, upland water and riverside pollution discharge factors which affect the amount of a pollution source input into the Nierji reservoir through the system dynamics decision model to achieve an affect that an ecological risk of a reservoir is lowered, and scheme decisions are realized ; evaluating the water ecology risk situations of different point locations in different time periods in a lake reservoir on the basis of a water ecology risk index system; constructing a sample space of a Bayesian network on the basis of Netica software; and calculating ecology risk happening probabilities of different degrees when each index is changed so as to realize Nen River drainage basin typical region water ecology risk assessment.The method is applied to river drainage basin typical region water ecology risk assessment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a water ecological risk assessment method in a typical area of ​​the Nen River Basin. Background technique [0002] System dynamics (System dynamics, SD), originally proposed by Professor J.W. Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1950s, caused problems in the early research of industrial enterprise management, and was called industrial dynamics. After 20 years The development in the 1970s gradually matured. The WORLDII and WORLDIII models based on system dynamics derived scientific research achievements of great significance to the development of human history, such as World Dynamics and "The Limits of Growth". Professor Forrester also The system dynamics method is used to analyze the social and economic problems of the United States, and the internal mechanism of the long-term economic fluctuations of the United States and Western countries is explained. In the 1990s, a large number of system dynamics...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
Inventor 郑国臣张静波魏民张继民钱宁何佳吉
Owner 松辽流域水资源保护局松辽流域水环境监测中心
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