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A water ecological risk assessment method for typical areas of the Nenjiang River Basin based on a system dynamics decision model

A system dynamics and decision-making model technology, applied in the field of water ecological risk assessment in typical areas of the Nenjiang River Basin, can solve the problem that there is no effective method for water ecological risk assessment in the Nenjiang River Basin, and achieve the effect of accelerating practical engineering applications

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-04-24
松辽流域水资源保护局松辽流域水环境监测中心
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Problems solved by technology

Moreover, there is no effective method for water ecological risk assessment in the Nenjiang River Basin

Method used

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  • A water ecological risk assessment method for typical areas of the Nenjiang River Basin based on a system dynamics decision model
  • A water ecological risk assessment method for typical areas of the Nenjiang River Basin based on a system dynamics decision model
  • A water ecological risk assessment method for typical areas of the Nenjiang River Basin based on a system dynamics decision model

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0047] Specific implementation mode one: a kind of water ecological risk assessment method based on the system dynamics decision-making model of the present implementation mode in the typical area of ​​the Nenjiang River Basin, it is carried out according to the following contents:

[0048] Through the system dynamics decision-making model, the tributary inflow, non-point source discharge, upstream water and sewage discharge factors that affect the amount of pollution sources entering the Nierji Reservoir are simulated to reduce the ecological risk of the reservoir through the system dynamics decision-making model. Realize plan decision-making, and evaluate the water ecological risk status of different points in different periods in the lake reservoir on the basis of the water ecological risk index system, build the sample space of the Bayesian network based on Netica software, and calculate the impact of different indicators when each indicator changes. The probability of occu...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0049] Specific implementation mode two: the difference between this implementation mode and specific implementation mode one is: the described formula for discharging sewage along the river is:

[0050] PSICODNJ=PSICOD×PSICODCR

[0051] PSICOD=IGDP×CODpIGDP×ICODDR

[0052] In the formula, PSICODNJ is the amount of COD entering the river from the Laba River sewage outlet of the Nen River;

[0053] PSICOD is the discharge volume of Laba River sewage outlet in Nenjiang County;

[0054] PSICODCR is the river discharge coefficient of industrial point source COD;

[0055] CODpIGDP is the COD emission of industrial added value per 10,000 yuan

[0056] ICODDR is the ratio of COD discharged from the Laba River sewage outlet to the COD discharged from industrial point sources in Nenjiang County. Others are the same as in the first embodiment.

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0057] Embodiment 3: This embodiment differs from Embodiment 1 in that: the upper reaches of the Nierji Reservoir, the main sewage discharge points in the Nenjiang main stream are the domestic sewage discharge from the sewage treatment plant in Nenjiang County and the industrial wastewater from the Laba River sewage outlet in Nenjiang County Emissions, both of which come from the socio-economic development of Nenjiang County, are affected by the population and socio-economic development of Nenjiang County. Others are the same as in the first embodiment.

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Abstract

A water ecological risk assessment method for a typical area of ​​the Nen River Basin based on a system dynamics decision model, which relates to a water ecological risk assessment method for a typical area of ​​the Nen River Basin. The method of the present invention is as follows: through the system dynamics decision-making model, the tributary influx, non-point source discharge, upstream water and sewage discharge along the river that affect the amount of pollution sources entering the Nierji Reservoir are used to simulate different treatment schemes to reduce the pollution of the reservoir. The effect of ecological risk is to realize the decision-making of the plan, and on the basis of the water ecological risk index system, evaluate the water ecological risk status of different points in the lake in different periods, and build the sample space of Bayesian network based on Netica software to calculate each index The probability of occurrence of different degrees of ecological risk when changes occur, so as to realize the assessment of water ecological risk in typical areas of the Nenjiang River Basin. The invention is applied to water ecological risk assessment in typical areas of river basins.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a water ecological risk assessment method in a typical area of ​​the Nen River Basin. Background technique [0002] System dynamics (System dynamics, SD), originally proposed by Professor J.W.Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1950s, caused problems in the early research of industrial enterprise management, and was called industrial dynamics. The development in the 1970s has gradually matured. The WORLD II and WORLD III models based on system dynamics have derived scientific research achievements of great significance to the development of human history, such as World Dynamics and "The Limits of Growth". Professor Forrester is here During the period, he also used the method of system dynamics to analyze the social and economic problems of the United States, and explained the internal mechanism of the long-term economic fluctuations of the United States and Western countries. In the 1990s, a large num...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
Inventor 郑国臣张静波魏民张继民钱宁何佳吉
Owner 松辽流域水资源保护局松辽流域水环境监测中心
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