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Multistate system probabilistic importance analysis method taking epistemic uncertainties into consideration

A technique for probabilistic importance and multi-state systems, which is applied in the design field of probabilistic importance analysis methods for multi-state systems, and can solve problems such as failure to consider the impact of system reliability assessment and importance analysis.

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-06-13
UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problem that the existing multi-state system importance analysis methods do not consider the impact of cognitive uncertainty on system reliability evaluation and importance analysis, and propose a method that considers cognitive uncertainty. Probabilistic Importance Analysis Method for Multi-state System

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  • Multistate system probabilistic importance analysis method taking epistemic uncertainties into consideration
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  • Multistate system probabilistic importance analysis method taking epistemic uncertainties into consideration

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Embodiment Construction

[0042] Embodiments of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0043] The present invention provides a multi-state system probability importance analysis method considering cognitive uncertainty. The actual engineering system described has multiple states, so it is called a multi-state system. It is composed of multiple components, each A component also has two or more discrete states, which are all possible intermediate states experienced by a component from a fully working state to a complete failure, which can be expressed as N l ={0,1,...,n l}, where 0 represents the complete failure state of the component, and n l Indicates that part 1 is in a good working state, and others are in an intermediate state. For example: the crack growth process of gears can be divided into four states: normal state, mild crack, moderate crack and deep crack. Due to the existence of cognitive uncertainty, component l also has unc...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a multistate system probabilistic importance analysis method taking epistemic uncertainties into consideration. The multistate system probabilistic importance analysis method includes firstly, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties by an evidence theory, and establishing a Markov model for computing state probability distribution intervals of all components of a multistate system; combining a logical combination relation between system states and unit states to obtain a system reliability interval and a conditional reliability interval of all the component states according to a conditional probability table; on the basis of a multistate system reliability model taking the epistemic uncertainties into consideration, putting forward the multistate system probabilistic importance analysis method based on an evidence theory frame and an importance interval ranking criterion based on an interval possibility degree method. The multistate system probabilistic importance analysis method taking the epistemic uncertainties into consideration has the advantages that the situation that a great number of epistemic uncertainties exist in a system service stage due to the small-batch and customization characteristics of a modern complex system is taken into full consideration, and accordingly the multistate system probabilistic importance analysis method is higher in engineering value as compared with a traditional multistate system importance analysis method based on a great quantity of sample data.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability evaluation of complex systems, and in particular relates to the design of a multi-state system probability importance analysis method considering cognitive uncertainty. Background technique [0002] Importance analysis is an important branch of reliability discipline and a key link in reliability analysis and design of complex systems. In the stage of system reliability design and service, the importance analysis can be used to identify the key components and reliability weak links of the system; in the system maintenance stage, the results of importance analysis can be used as the basis for maintenance decision-making. Therefore, importance analysis has been widely used in the life cycle management of complex engineering systems or products such as construction machinery, manufacturing systems, nuclear power plants, and electronic products. [0003] The traditional system importance analysis...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/17G06F2111/08G06F2119/04
Inventor 刘宇夏侯唐凡张皓冬
Owner UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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