New energy output level evaluation method based on transition probability matrix

Abstract

The invention discloses a new energy output level evaluation method based on a transition probability matrix. The method comprises the steps of obtaining new energy output original data at a fixed interval in a predetermined time period; dividing the original data into M output ranges which are not overlapped, and classifying the new energy output into M output level; according to the original data, through calculating transition probability pij that an I th output level after the predetermined time intervals converts to a j th output level, and obtaining an output level transition probability matrix P; judging whether or not P meets transition probability constraint conditions; if the P does not meet the constraint conditions, checking out effectiveness of the original data of the new energy output and the precision of transition probability calculation; if the P meets the constraint conditions, checking out the state maintenance capacity and fluctuation range of the new energy output level. Through the P, new energy output situations can be visually learnt, machine halt combination is reasonably arranged, the reserve capacity is optimized, and the economy and reliability of a power grid are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of new energy power stations, in particular to a new energy output level evaluation method based on a transition probability matrix. Background technique [0002] With the rapid growth of electricity demand and the requirements of sustainable development in the global economic development, new energy power generation technology has emerged along with the trend. At present, new energy power generation technologies mainly include wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation. Wind power generation uses wind energy to generate electricity. Wind energy is a renewable energy source and is green and environmentally friendly. The use of wind energy to generate electricity is conducive to the sustainable development of the global economy. Photovoltaic power generation uses solar energy to generate electricity. Solar energy is a nearly inexhaustible energy source for human beings. The use of solar power ge...

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Problems solved by technology

The uncertainty of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation output also brings many difficulties in dispatching and operation of the power grid, which not only increases the peak regulation pressure of the power system, but also reduces the reliability of power system operation

The existing wind power grid-connected scheduling optimization is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is to establish a more accurate wind power or photovoltaic output model, relying on the model to dispatch the system; the other is to configure a reasonable system reserve capacity, large-scale wind power or photovoltaic power generation integration As a result, the peak-to-valley difference of the equivalent load of the system becomes larger, which intensifies the difficulty of peak regulation of the system. In order to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the system, sufficient spare capacity must be reserved

[0004] However, the wind power or photovoltaic output models selected in the prior art are relatively simple, and there is a large deviation from the actual wind power output or photovoltaic power output, and the reliability of the dispatching system is poor.

In addition, in many optimization models, a certain percentage of the total amount of wind power or photovoltaic power generation is used as additional reserve capacity to deal with the random variation characteristics of wind power or photovoltaic power generation, but this deterministic scheduling method does not take into account the uncertainty of wind power or photovoltaic power generation. Statistical analysis, in fact, only by reserving 100% of wind power or photovoltaic power generation capacity level for backup can ensure the absolute safety of the system, reducing the utilization rate of new energy

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