Method for forecasting optical output power and electric energy production of photovoltaic power station

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for forecasting optical output power and electric energy production of a photovoltaic power station, belonging to the technical field of power generation and distribution. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps: on-site data acquisition-comparison with historic data-output of the forecasting result. The forecasting accuracy is so accurate that annual average between the forecasting result and actual result is no more than 5%; short-time forecasting, daily forecasting, weekly forecasting, monthly forecasting and annual forecasting can be carried out; as far as power grid dispatching is concerned, starting-up mode and operation mode of the photovoltaic power station and a conventional power station in a certain period can be reasonably arranged according to the forecasting, so that the power grid can operate stably, electric energy production of the photovoltaic power station can be improved, technical evidence and theoretic guidance can be provided for establishment of the large capacity photovoltaic power station, safe and efficient operation of the photovoltaic power station can be ensured and smooth implementation of national new energy strategy can be facilitated.

Description

1. Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting optical power and generating capacity of a photovoltaic power station, and belongs to the technical field of power generation and distribution. 2. Technical background [0002] The output power of photovoltaic power plants and wind farms has the characteristics of random fluctuations. For the power grid, their output can be regarded as a negative load. Since the proportion of new energy in the existing grid is not high, it is generally not included in the grid dispatching work, and because the research and application of solar optical power prediction methods have not yet been carried out, the fluctuation of solar power is of great importance to the grid. Totally random. The problem of solar power balance needs to be paid special attention in actual operation. With the expansion of the scale of new energy, the unbalanced distribution of photovoltaic power plants and wind farms and the adverse impact...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, in view of the fact that the current grid construction cannot keep up with the development of new energy, according to the requirements of the Renewable Energy Law, it is necessary to ensure that the grid company fully accepts new energy. In this case, there are certain problems in grid scheduling.

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