Lake-ecosystem catastrophe early-warning method

Abstract

The invention discloses a lake-ecosystem catastrophe early-warning method. According to the method, by the adoption of ecosystem mutation detection results, and time nodes can be obtained, wherein at the time nodes, lake-ecosystem energy quality mutates, and that is to say, catastrophes occur; in this way, ecosystem energy quality critical points are selected, in combination with a lake-ecosystem catastrophe early-warning model which is established on the basis of ecosystem total phosphorus, total nitrogen and energy-quality time sequences, the corresponding total phosphorus concentration and total nitrogen concentration are obtained through calculation and serve as early-warning threshold values of a Taihu ecosystem, and results of the method are more suitable for the actual lake environment. According to the method, the problem can be solved that it is difficult for a traditional disturbance modulation testing method based on a critical slowdown principle to adapt to actual ecosystem interference factors, and the method is a more accurate and more practical lake-ecosystem catastrophe early-warning method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of early warning of water ecosystems, in particular to an early warning method for sudden changes in lake ecosystems. Background technique [0002] As a complex and unique lake ecosystem, large shallow lakes are greatly affected by the upper boundary (water-air interface) and lower boundary (water-soil interface). The mud-water interface interacts strongly, resulting in slow deposition and material migration. Affected by wind and waves, the risk of endogenous nutrient explosion and release is high, the carrying capacity of the water environment is low, the aquatic ecosystem is more fragile, and the response to pollution is more sensitive. It is one of the water bodies that are extremely prone to eutrophication. The eutrophication of lakes will lead to a series of abnormal responses of the ecosystem, including the increase of microbial biomass and productivity, the gradual increase of attached organisms, the frequent o...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The present invention utilizes the actual monitoring data of long-term lakes, based on the energy quality theory, establishes a lake ecosystem catastrophe early warning model, obtains the ecosystem catastrophe early warning threshold for a specific lake, and solves the problem that the laboratory disturbance simulation experiment is difficult to apply to the actual lake environment. Provide a basis for realizing the targeted management of "one lake, one policy"

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