Power distribution network medium-voltage line differentiation planning method considering load prediction error uncertainty

Abstract

By integrating the thought of regional differential division into distribution network planning, and fully considering uncertainty distribution of load prediction errors, the invention provides a differential uncertainty planning method for a 10 kV medium-voltage line in a low-load-density region. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, on the basis of a load prediction error probability characteristic model, a medium-voltage line planning mathematical model based on the opportunity constraint theory is constructed, and for the problem of the confidence level value in the model, thedifferential analysis is carried out on the anti-risk capability of the power distribution network in the region to be planned according to the comprehensive weighting method, and then a corresponding confidence level is selected for the power distribution network with different anti-risk capabilities. Compared with a traditional planning method, the method provided by the invention not only canachieve overall coordination of risks and cost, and the differentiation characteristics of the development of different distribution station regions in the low-load-density region are fully considered, and therefore the fine level of power distribution network planning is effectively improved. The correctness and effectiveness of the method provided by the invention are verified based on the simulation result of an actual example.

Description

technical field [0001] In the present invention, a differentiated uncertainty planning method for 10kV medium-voltage lines in low-load density areas is proposed, which incorporates the idea of ​​regional differentiation and fully considers the uncertainty distribution of load forecasting errors. The invention relates to wire diameter planning for a distribution network, which belongs to the technical field of medium-voltage distribution network planning. Background technique [0002] At present, the problem of low voltage in my country's distribution network is serious. When the load density is less than 1MW / km 2 The agricultural and pastoral areas are particularly prominent. In areas with low load density, long power supply distances and obsolete distribution network equipment are the main causes of low voltage problems, and the distribution network, especially the transformation of medium-voltage lines in distribution networks, is an important means to solve low voltage ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although the chance-constrained programming method successfully applies the chance-constrained theory to some distribution network planning problems, on the one hand, it focuses on the study of the location and capacity of distributed power generation and the energy scheduling of generating units. It is rarely used in the problem of wire diameter selection; on the other hand, the confidence level in the planning model is often taken uniformly, without considering the differences in regional development levels

However, studies have shown that in low-load density areas with a wide power supply range, due to the huge differences in the economic level and load structure of different villages and towns, the distribution network's tolerance to various risks is also different.

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