Dynamic assessment and forecasting method of local government debt risk

Abstract

A dynamic assessment and forecasting method of local government debt risk includes the following steps: (1) Analyzing the local government debt risk system structure and causality, including social and economic subsystem, local government debt scale subsystem, local government debt risk measurement subsystem. (2) using Vensim PLE software to construct the local government debt risk system. including: 1, constructing system stock flow chart; 2, defining the functional relationship of variables. (3) simulating and measuring the risk of local government debt and testing the risk sensitive factors, including: 1, selecting local government; 2, collecting and processing the data related to relevant evaluation indexes; 3, performing parameter estimation and variable equation design; 4, model checking and simulation. 5, performing sensitivity test of risk factors. The invention tracks and feeds back the local government debt risk status in time, grasps the debt risk distribution and the change status from the scale and the structure, and provides a tool for the government to control the debt risk.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of local government debt risk prevention and control, in particular to a system for dynamic assessment of local government debt risk, risk influencing factor testing and risk change trend prediction. Background technique [0002] The focus of research on local government debt issues is mainly on the causes of debt, debt management, influencing factors, and risk warnings. Regarding the research on local government debt risk and prevention, foreign theoretical and empirical research mainly focuses on the United States, Brazil, Colombia, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and other countries with relatively sound risk warnings. The early warning methods of local government risks in these countries can be classified into two categories: one is to use the local financial monitoring system to monitor the government’s financial security, so as to control the occurrence of government debt crises, such as the Ohio model in t...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problems in the prior art such as single research object, multiple collinearity of indicators, and unsteady conclusions, break through the static perspective of the prior art, and provide a dynamic evaluation method for local government debt risk, which can analyze the risk status of local government debt Carry out timely tracking and feedback to grasp the distribution and expected changes of debt risk in terms of scale and structure

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