Dynamic assessment and forecasting method of local government debt risk

A forecasting method and dynamic evaluation technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, finance, etc., can solve the problems of multicollinearity of indicators, unstable conclusions, and single research object, so as to avoid economic losses, ensure economic security, and stabilize financial markets. Effect

Pending Publication Date: 2019-03-29
TIANJIN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problems in the prior art such as single research object, multiple collinearity of indicators, and unsteady conclusions, break through the static perspective of the prior art, and provide a

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  • Dynamic assessment and forecasting method of local government debt risk
  • Dynamic assessment and forecasting method of local government debt risk
  • Dynamic assessment and forecasting method of local government debt risk

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Embodiment 1

[0052] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0053] refer to figure 1 , a dynamic assessment and prediction method for local government debt risks, including the following steps:

[0054] The first step is to analyze the system structure and causality of local government debt risk.

[0055] The local government debt risk system is composed of internal and external systems that affect the borrowing and repayment of local government debt. The external environment that has the greatest impact on government debt is social and economic development, and the internal system that has the greatest impact on government debt is the change in debt scale and debt. There are two aspects of risk. Therefore, the local government debt risk system mainly includes three subsystems: social economy, local government debt scale, and local government debt risk measurement. feedback structure.

[0056] (1) Socio-economic subsystem. ...

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Abstract

A dynamic assessment and forecasting method of local government debt risk includes the following steps: (1) Analyzing the local government debt risk system structure and causality, including social and economic subsystem, local government debt scale subsystem, local government debt risk measurement subsystem. (2) using Vensim PLE software to construct the local government debt risk system. including: 1, constructing system stock flow chart; 2, defining the functional relationship of variables. (3) simulating and measuring the risk of local government debt and testing the risk sensitive factors, including: 1, selecting local government; 2, collecting and processing the data related to relevant evaluation indexes; 3, performing parameter estimation and variable equation design; 4, model checking and simulation. 5, performing sensitivity test of risk factors. The invention tracks and feeds back the local government debt risk status in time, grasps the debt risk distribution and the change status from the scale and the structure, and provides a tool for the government to control the debt risk.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of local government debt risk prevention and control, in particular to a system for dynamic assessment of local government debt risk, risk influencing factor testing and risk change trend prediction. Background technique [0002] The focus of research on local government debt issues is mainly on the causes of debt, debt management, influencing factors, and risk warnings. Regarding the research on local government debt risk and prevention, foreign theoretical and empirical research mainly focuses on the United States, Brazil, Colombia, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and other countries with relatively sound risk warnings. The early warning methods of local government risks in these countries can be classified into two categories: one is to use the local financial monitoring system to monitor the government’s financial security, so as to control the occurrence of government debt crises, such as the Ohio model in t...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q40/02G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0635G06Q50/26G06Q40/03
Inventor 高华张璇朱俊文
Owner TIANJIN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
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