Train control system risk assessment method

Abstract

The invention relates to a train control system risk assessment method, which comprises the steps of collecting data of a train control system risk assessment object, and establishing a fault tree; constructing a risk matrix accommodating risk occurrence frequency and consequence severity; calculating the risk source occurrence frequency; calculating the occurrence frequency of risk events; calculating the consequence severity degree of the risk; according to the risk event occurrence frequency and the risk consequence severity degree, the risk event occurrence frequency and the risk consequence severity degree are compared with the risk matrix to evaluate the risk level; converting the fault tree into a Bayesian network, and determining a weak link of the train control system in combination with the risk source occurrence frequency; and according to the risk level, carrying out risk control on the weak link of the train control system so as to reduce the risk occurrence frequency of the train control system and reduce the consequence severity. Compared with the prior art, the method is based on the comprehensive application of various methods, ensures that the risk assessment result is accurate and effective, and provides a reliable basis for the risk control of the train control system by determining the weak link of the risk of the train control system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of train control system risk assessment, in particular to a train control system risk assessment method. Background technique [0002] The train operation control system, that is, the train control system, is a safety-critical system integrating control, communication and other technologies. It is mainly used to control the running speed of the train, ensure the safety of the train and improve the transportation efficiency. It can control the running interval of the train in real time and prevent the train from overspeeding. Operation is the core technical equipment and key safety system to ensure the high-speed, safe and reliable operation of trains. Compared with the traditional signal system, the train control system has more stringent safety requirements, and its own safety hazards will seriously endanger the safety and efficiency of train operation. Whether in theory or in actual production, it is of g...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Among them, the failure mode impact and hazard analysis method is a qualitative analysis. For complex systems, the evaluation results will lose accuracy; the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is most used in risk assessment, and the AHP and expert The scoring method conducts semi-quantitative assessment of risk, which is simple in principle and highly operable, but is greatly affected by the subjective factors of experts; the risk matrix method stipulates the principle of risk acceptance. Specifically, the risk matrix is ​​a two-dimensional model that only The risk level is assessed according to the frequency of risk occurrence and the severity of the consequences, without considering more attributes of the risk, resulting in unreliable risk evaluation results; while the fault tree analysis method can not only indicate the logical relationship between risk events and risk sources, but also analyze the The importance of the source of risk, but the method works best only when you have exact failure data

[0004] The above risk assessment methods all have their own shortcomings. For complex train control systems, if the above methods are used for risk assessment alone, the reliability and accuracy of the risk assessment results will not be guaranteed. In addition, the existing train control system risk assessment is usually based on The risk matrix assesses the risk level and is not linked to the risk nodes in the train control system, so it is impossible to determine the weak link of the train control system in practice

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