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Risk quantitative evaluation method and device for geological disaster chain after strong earthquake

A technique for quantitative assessment and geological hazards, applied in data processing applications, instruments, calculations, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2020-04-28
SICHUAN DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION HIGHWAY PLANNING PROSPECTING & DESIGN RES INST
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to: aim at the lack of quantitative assessment methods for disaster chain risk in the prior art, provide a quantitative risk assessment method for geological disaster chains after strong earthquakes, and build a complete set of risk assessments for post-earthquake geological disaster chains The framework system can not only quantitatively evaluate the interaction between various disasters, but also quantitatively evaluate the interaction between disasters and the vulnerability of disaster-affected bodies; another purpose of the present invention is to provide post-disaster reconstruction Plan decision for reference

Method used

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  • Risk quantitative evaluation method and device for geological disaster chain after strong earthquake
  • Risk quantitative evaluation method and device for geological disaster chain after strong earthquake
  • Risk quantitative evaluation method and device for geological disaster chain after strong earthquake

Examples

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Embodiment 1

[0050] This example is based on the research along the Yingxiu-Wolong Highway after the Wenchuan Earthquake, and according to the meteorological conditions and disaster outbreak rules in the extremely severe earthquake-stricken area, the risk assessment of the landslide-debris flow disaster chain induced by rainfall is carried out. Among the 16 valley debris flow basins distributed along the Yingxiu-Wolong highway, 13 are identified by field investigation as being prone to disaster chains. risk. The distribution positions of these 13 debris flow ditches are as follows: figure 1 .

[0051] When evaluating the disaster chain, it is necessary to consider the interaction between disasters: (1) due to the overlapping of risks caused by multiple disasters, for example: the overlapping accumulation areas caused by the occurrence of disasters in two adjacent watersheds at the same time; 2) With the occurrence of disaster chains, the intensity of disasters increases, and the amplific...

Embodiment 2

[0116] Based on Example 1, after quantifying the risk of the disaster chain, refer to the general guidelines of ALARP in the international scope, such as image 3 , and the landslide loss of life risk acceptance criteria proposed by the Geotechnical Engineering Department of Hong Kong, such as Figure 4 , to define the acceptable level of risk, establish a risk acceptable criterion model, divide the level according to the tolerance level of disaster loss, and divide the level of disaster risk into unacceptable range, tolerable range and acceptable range; social risk and / or individual risk The quantitative value of the corresponding risk acceptance criterion model, evaluates the risk level, and provides a basis for the safety evaluation of the post-disaster reconstruction plan and the establishment of safety measures. The risk acceptability criterion model is represented by the F-N curve of "annual average probability of accident occurrence (F) - death toll (N)", such as Figu...

Embodiment 3

[0119] This embodiment provides a risk quantitative assessment device, including at least one processor, and a memory connected to the processor in communication; the memory stores at least one instruction that can be executed by the corresponding processor, and the instruction is executed by the processor, so that the processing The device can perform all or part of the steps described in the above embodiments.

[0120] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the steps for implementing the above-mentioned method embodiments can be completed by hardware related to program instructions, and the aforementioned programs can be stored in computer-readable storage media. Steps of a method embodiment. When the above-mentioned integrated units of the present invention are realized in the form of software function units and sold or used as independent products, they can also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technica...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the field of geological disaster risk assessment, and particularly relates to a risk quantitative evaluation method for a geological disaster chain after a strong earthquake.The method includes searching data, acquiring a long-term evolution rule of post-earthquake disasters, establishing spatial database, and respectively quantifying disaster chain risk evaluation, disaster-bearing body evaluation and vulnerability evaluation; and comprehensively and quantitatively evaluating the accumulated risk of the disaster chain according to the quantized values, establishing arisk acceptable criterion model based on an ALARP principle, and grading the potential hazard degree of the comprehensively evaluated accumulated risk of the disaster chain according to the model. According to the method, a set of complete risk evaluation framework system of the post-earthquake geological disaster chain is built, the interaction between disasters can be quantitatively evaluated,the interaction between the disasters and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies can also be quantitatively evaluated, the potential risk degree of the disaster chain can be comprehensively and accurately evaluated, and reference is provided for decision making of a post-disaster reconstruction scheme.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of geological disaster risk assessment, in particular to a risk quantitative assessment method for geological disaster chains after strong earthquakes. Background technique [0002] The comprehensive risk assessment of geological disaster chain is a frontier issue in the field of engineering geology and geotechnical engineering at home and abroad. At present, the risk assessment methods for single geological disasters have been explored, but due to the complex mechanism of multi-hazards and the complex mechanism between the disaster chain and the disaster-affected body, the existing research on the "disaster chain effect" of multiple disasters is mostly limited to its The qualitative description of the phenomenon, the research on the risk quantification of geological disaster chains at home and abroad has not yet made substantial progress, and there is a lack of methods for quantifying the risk of disaster chains to e...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q10/06393G06Q50/26
Inventor 向波何云勇汪晓锋李勇王东魏琨
Owner SICHUAN DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION HIGHWAY PLANNING PROSPECTING & DESIGN RES INST
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