Reliability evaluation method and system for comprehensive energy system

Abstract

The invention provides a reliability evaluation method and system for a comprehensive energy system. The method comprises the steps: obtaining the data of the comprehensive energy system, building a structural model of the comprehensive energy system, and building an operation energy flow balance model of a power supply subsystem and a heat supply subsystem according to the structural model of thecomprehensive energy system; establishing a load reduction optimization model by taking the minimum value of the equivalent load reduction quantity as an optimization target according to the energy prices of the electrical load, the thermal load and the cold load and the relative importance degree of the electrical load; and based on the operation energy flow balance model and the load reductionmodel, considering network parameters, air temperature variables and source load variables of the comprehensive energy system, performing load flow calculation on the comprehensive energy system, anddetermining a reliability index of the comprehensive energy system by utilizing a load flow calculation result and combining a sequential Monte Carlo method. According to the method, the differences in network topology, transmission delay, terminal thermal inertia and user reliability requirements are considered, and the reliability evaluation precision of the comprehensive energy system is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of integrated energy systems, and in particular relates to a reliability evaluation method and system for integrated energy systems. Background technique [0002] In order to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, and ease energy pressure, countries all over the world are developing integrated energy systems (Integrated Energy System, IES). IES can not only break the institutional, technical and market barriers of the traditional energy supply system, but also enhance the overall interaction of sources, grids and loads under various energy flows, and the substitutability and complementarity between the energy flows will improve the reliability of energy supply of the system sex. For this reason, considering the differences in the impact of different energy supply interruptions on users, the characteristics of the operating state changes of each energy system, and the multi-energy complementarit...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0008] First, most of the existing reliability assessment methods in energy systems ignore the actual network topology and heat network transmission loss, and only simulate the temperature change of the thermal terminal, which cannot reflect the influence of network transmission performance on reliability;

[0009] Second, load reduction strategies are mostly formulated from the perspective of energy suppliers and society, ignoring the differences in users' needs for energy supply reliability;

[0010] Third, due to the inertia of the heating network and the transmission delay, the state change of the system at the time of failure has a time lag, and the state of the system at the time of failure and the recovery time of the failure jointly determine the change of the user's heating temperature, so it is very important for the reliability of the energy system. However, the current reliability assessment methods only consider the failure of the power grid, and most of them do not simulate the operation of the energy system, and cannot obtain the state of the heating network failure, which leads to the reliability assessment of the energy system. The roughness of the result

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