Existing railway bridge reliability comprehensive evaluation method based on Bayesian network theory

Abstract

The invention discloses an existing railway bridge reliability comprehensive evaluation method based on a Bayesian network theory, and belongs to the technical field of bridge monitoring. The method comprises steps of proposing a selection principle, an identification method and an identification process of risk factors; establishing a hierarchical structure model of the risk factors and then further dividing a hierarchical structure; determining a grade evaluation standard of each risk factor, and carrying out correlation analysis; establishing a fault tree model of the risk factors and mapping the fault tree model into a Bayesian network model; determining a prior probability of a root node and a conditional probability of a non-root node of the Bayesian network model; and performing diagnosis reasoning of the Bayesian network and realizing programming. According to the method, the problem of reliability evaluation of the existing railway bridge is solved, reliability prediction of the whole bridge structure is realized, and under the condition that the whole bridge structure fails, accident causes are diagnosed, and key risk-causing paths are identified; the overall health state of the bridge structure can be judged, key causes of bridge accidents can be diagnosed, and a multi-level key comprehensive bridge assessment method is established.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a comprehensive evaluation method for reliability of existing railway bridges based on Bayesian network theory, belonging to the technical field of bridge monitoring. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of the economy, the speed and load of trains have been further improved, and the reliability evaluation of railway bridge structures during operation is a very important issue. [0003] During the service period of the bridge, the bridge structure will be affected by many factors such as environmental erosion, load action, material degradation and structural damage. The coupling of these factors will lead to a reduction in the bearing capacity of the bridge structure. If the risk factors cannot be repaired and strengthened in time, it may not only affect driving safety, but may even threaten the safety of people's lives and property. However, if all risk factors are repaired and reinforced blindly, it will ...

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Problems solved by technology

The coupling effect of these factors will lead to a reduction in the bearing capacity of the bridge structure. If the risk factors cannot be repaired and strengthened in time, it may not only affect the driving safety, but also threaten the safety of people's lives and property.

However, if all risk factors are repaired and reinforced blindly, it will not only cause a waste of resources, but also cause accidents because the real damage of the bridge structure cannot be discovered in time

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