Convection monomer evolution trend discrimination method based on Doppler weather radar

Abstract

The invention provides a convective monomer evolution trend discrimination method based on a Doppler weather radar, and the method comprises the following steps: determining radar echo indexes describing convective monomers, and screening key indexes as a feature factor set B; based on the characteristic factor set B, calculating the change trend of each factor Bi of the convection monomers, and determining the weight wi of the change trend of each factor in combination with the evolution process of the typical convection monomers; and according to the evolution trend and the weight wi of each characteristic factor, calculating the evolution trend index of the convective monomer, and setting a threshold value corresponding to the evolution trend index K for developing, maintaining and weakening the convective monomer. The method can quickly and objectively calculate the change trend of the convective monomer, is beneficial to enhancing the pre-judgment of the occurrence and development of disastrous weather, and improves the strong convective disaster defense capability of a power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of disastrous weather identification and early warning, in particular to a method and device for discriminating the evolution trend of convective cells based on Doppler weather radar. Background technique [0002] Lightning, strong winds, and heavy precipitation caused by convective systems are important causes of power meteorological disasters such as lightning trips, wind flashovers, and water accumulation in substations. For example, most of the wind deflection flashovers of 220kv and above transmission lines recorded by the State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company occurred during strong convective weather in summer. The convective system has a small space-time scale and is mainly composed of convective cells, multi-cell storms, and supercell storms. Among them, the convective cell is the most basic organizational form of the convective system, and its characteristics of rapid occurrence, development, a...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Traditional numerical weather prediction is difficult to analyze the convective cell-scale information. At present, the monitoring and forecasting of convective weather mainly rely on Doppler weather radar, and the wind field, precipitation and other information are retrieved from the radar echo information. Extrapolation and forecasting based on weather forecaster experience

The conventional Doppler weather radar-based extrapolation forecast process includes a series of steps such as radar data reception, radar information extraction, weather station observation fusion, and monitoring and forecasting product production. The forecast timeliness often lags by 10-30 minutes. convective monomer, it is difficult to grasp its evolution trend in time

In business, meteorological forecasters often quickly judge the evolution trend of convective cells through real-time observation of radar echo characteristics, but manual judgment requires high ability of forecasters, and the judgment results of different forecasters are often different, lacking objectivity

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