This invention discloses a method and device for forecasting and warning
supercell hailstorms, relating to the field of meteorological forecasting. The method includes: S1 constructing an adaptive dynamic warning model and a weighted forest model; S2 acquiring a first training dataset and a second training dataset; S3 training and optimizing the adaptive dynamic warning model and the weighted forest model; S4 acquiring multivariate
observation data,
storm life cycle stages,
terrain type of the observation area, and environmental field favorability; S5 analyzing the optimal feature subset; S6 analyzing the comprehensive warning index; S7 analyzing and outputting the warning results and updating the query experience value table; S8 issuing warning information; S9 determining whether the termination condition is met, ending if yes, otherwise returning to S4; the adaptive dynamic warning model realizes a closed-loop learning mechanism of "state
perception - action decision - reward feedback - strategy optimization update", enabling the
system to autonomously learn and optimize the warning strategy, and realizing intelligent dynamic adjustment of the warning level.