Comprehensive energy system robust optimization planning method considering supply and demand uncertainty

Abstract

The invention discloses an integrated energy system robust optimization planning method considering supply and demand uncertainty, and the method comprises the steps: employing a BP neural network prediction model to carry out the analysis of a supply and demand double-side wind and light output sample and a cooling, heating and power load sample, and obtaining prediction error uncertainty sets; a double-layer optimization model of the integrated energy system in the smart park is established, the lower-layer model takes economic evaluation indexes and environmental evaluation indexes as weighted system operation cost, and the upper-layer model takes the total life cycle cost converted to year as a target and takes the equipment capacity of the integrated energy system as a decision variable; based on the uncertainty set, performing robustness transformation on the double-layer optimization model, and establishing a double-layer robust optimization scheduling model of the integrated energy system; and solving the double-layer robust optimization scheduling model of the integrated energy system to obtain the optimal capacity configuration of the integrated energy system. According to the planning method, economic and low-carbon operation of the system can be realized, and the reliability and robustness of various energy supplies of the system can be ensured.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of comprehensive energy systems, and in particular relates to a comprehensive energy system planning method that considers multi-objectives and considers both supply and demand uncertainty and robust optimization. Background technique [0002] The integrated energy system can realize the complementary and coordinated optimization of multiple energy sources, and the construction of an integrated energy system will help promote the coordinated development of my country's energy and the realization of the dual-carbon goal. How to effectively use the planning method to achieve the optimal capacity allocation of the integrated energy system is the focus and focus of future research. However, due to the uncertainty of the power generation output of renewable resources, it is necessary to predict the uncertainty of the power generation output of renewable resources on the supply side. In the research on demand-side load unc...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The present invention aims at the shortcomings of the existing comprehensive energy system capacity optimization method that does not consider the uncertainty of both sides of supply and demand, and does not consider the strong coupling relationship between cooling-heating-electric loads on the user side, and provides a method that considers the difference between supply and demand A deterministic comprehensive energy system robust optimization planning method, the method of the present invention can not only realize the economical and low-carbon operation of the system, but also ensure the reliability and robustness of various energy supplies of the system

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