Short time trend predicating method for sea wave significant wave height based on reanalysis data

A technology for effective wave height and trend prediction, applied in electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of limited coverage and restricting the reliability of effective wave height of ocean waves.

Active Publication Date: 2014-09-10
HOHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Although traditional observation methods such as buoys can accurately obtain information on changes in wave height, they can only obtain changes in fixed points, and the coverage is very limited. Currently, it is difficult to obtain continuous data for more than 20 years Buoy observation data of sea surface waves
With the

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  • Short time trend predicating method for sea wave significant wave height based on reanalysis data
  • Short time trend predicating method for sea wave significant wave height based on reanalysis data
  • Short time trend predicating method for sea wave significant wave height based on reanalysis data

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Embodiment Construction

[0031] The specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings and examples.

[0032] Now taking a certain sea area in China as an example, a short-term trend prediction method based on the reanalysis data of the significant wave height of ocean waves proposed by the present invention is used to forecast the short-term trend of the significant wave height of ocean waves, combined with figure 1 , the specific steps include the following:

[0033] Step 1. Collect the sea level pressure SLP and significant wave height Hs data of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set of a certain sea area in China based on the grid model at each time period from 1981 to 2000. The data interval is once every 6 hours; But not limited to this, the weather forecast data of each period of 20 to 30 years from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set of the European Center for Mesoscale Weather Prediction based on the grid pattern c...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a short time trend predicating method for a sea wave significant wave height based on reanalysis data. The method is characterized by comprising the following specific steps that firstly, data of the sea wave significant wave height based on the reanalysis data and data of sea level pressure are collected; secondly, a sea level pressure matrix and a significant wave height matrix are built; thirdly, the anomaly of the SLP and the standard deviation of the anomaly are calculated; fourthly, main composition analysis is conducted on the anomaly of the SLP; fifthly, Box-Cox conversion is conducted on the data of the sea level pressure and the data of the sea wave significant wave height; sixthly, predicating factors of the sea wave significant wave height are obtained through calculation; seventhly, the predicating factors are substituted into a predicating model, and the optimal predicating factor is selected for predicating with F-statistics; eighthly, the short time trend of the sea wave significant wave height is calculated; ninthly, the value of the sea wave significant wave height is restored and stored into a lattice point mode file; tenthly, a short time trend chart of the sea wave significant wave height is drawn. According to the short time trend predicating method, the multi-time short time trend of the sea wave significant wave height can be forecasted, and the accuracy of forecasting the short time trend of the significant wave height is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of ocean wave parameter forecasting, in particular to a short-term trend forecasting method for effective wave height of ocean waves based on reanalysis data. Background technique [0002] Waves have a non-negligible impact on people's production and life, such as sea navigation, coastal port construction, waterway engineering, fishery production, etc. are closely related to waves. In addition, the safety of offshore oil platforms is also closely related to sea waves. The significant wave height of ocean waves is an important parameter reflecting the characteristics of ocean waves, so it is of great practical significance to analyze and predict the trend of significant wave height of ocean waves. Although traditional observation methods such as buoys can accurately obtain information on changes in wave height, they can only obtain changes in fixed points, and the coverage is very limited. Currently, it is d...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 吴玲莉张玮吴腾焦楚杰
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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