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Mountain torrent disaster risk evaluation method based on polymorphic system theory

A multi-state system and risk evaluation technology, which is applied in the field of hydrological evaluation of disaster prevention and mitigation, can solve problems affecting the accuracy of evaluation results, and achieve the effect of improving the sustainable development of society and economy, accurate evaluation results, and eliminating the interference of human factors

Active Publication Date: 2017-06-06
CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, due to the limitations of the data in the study area, there are still human factors affecting the index classification and weight determination of each influencing factor, which affects the accuracy of the evaluation results to a certain extent.

Method used

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  • Mountain torrent disaster risk evaluation method based on polymorphic system theory
  • Mountain torrent disaster risk evaluation method based on polymorphic system theory
  • Mountain torrent disaster risk evaluation method based on polymorphic system theory

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
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Embodiment 1

[0041] This embodiment is a method for evaluating the risk of mountain torrent disasters based on the polymorphic system theory. The process is as follows figure 1 shown. The method described in this embodiment comprises the steps:

[0042] (1) Data collection steps: used to divide the research area into research units, collect hydrometeorology, topography and geology, soil vegetation, river systems, socio-economic aspects of each research unit, as well as rainfall, DEM, soil type, Collection of various data on land use, population data, socio-economic indicators, especially rainfall data.

[0043] Regarding the collection of rainfall data, the actual rainfall data can be used for areas with rich rainfall data, and methods such as the rainstorm atlas method, the regional rainstorm experience formula method, and the "Iron Courtyard" method can be used for areas without data. Specifically, the calculation method is determined according to the data of the study area. Other fac...

Embodiment 2

[0074] This embodiment is an improvement of the first embodiment, and is about the method for collecting rainfall data in the embodiment. The collection of rainfall data described in the present embodiment is:

[0075] For areas with rich rainfall data, actual rainfall data can be used, and for areas without data, methods such as the rainstorm atlas method, the regional rainstorm experience formula method, and the "Iron Courtyard" method can be used.

[0076] Among them, the "Iron One Courtyard" method is applicable to the catchment area of ​​100km 2 The calculation method of storm flood in a small watershed is as follows. This method comprehensively considers the three factors of runoff, slope confluence and river network confluence, and the accuracy of the calculation results is relatively high. The regional rainstorm empirical formula method is a regional empirical formula that takes into account the rainstorm and underlying surface factors, and is mostly used for checking...

Embodiment 3

[0078] This embodiment is an improvement of the above embodiment, and is a refinement of the method of determining different risk levels of each research area in the above embodiment. The method of determining the different risk levels of each research area described in this embodiment is as follows:

[0079] each R p0 、R p1 、R p2 、R p3 and R s0 、R s1 、R s2 、R s3 list of calculation results;

[0080] found in the list R p0 、R p1 、R p2 、R p3 and R s0 、R s1 、R s2 、R s3 the maximum value;

[0081] Determine the risk as the main status value with the ranking of the maximum value;

[0082] The one with the smaller value of the main state is the high-risk state, and the one with the larger value of the main state is the low-risk state.

[0083] Take Table 1 as an example: the horizontal row is the risk probability and loss probability of a township, and the column is the name of each township or town (research unit). The maximum value of the risk p...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a mountain torrent disaster risk evaluation method based on a polymorphic system theory. The method includes the following steps: collecting data; carrying out mountain torrent disaster status survey; grading influence factors; establishing a model; and determining different risk grades. Through collection and arranging of basic information of hydrology and landform with a small basin being a unit, technological means such as GIS, satellite remote sensing and hydrological analytical calculation is fully utilized to extract related data, combined with mountain torrent disaster field survey data, a small-basin rainstorm flood analysis is made, a mountain torrent-threatening residential area mountain torrent disaster status defense capability is evaluated, and village danger zones along a river are scientifically divided, through analysis evaluation, basic characteristics of small-basin rainstorm flood of a mountain torrent disaster danger zone and a personnel and property distribution situation are mastered relatively comprehensively and accurately, a relation among a rainstorm, mountain torrents and a disaster is analyzed, and critical rainfall of villages, market towns and towns along the river that may cause occurrence of a mountain torrent disaster is analyzed, thereby providing support for further improving a mountain torrent disaster prevention and control capability and sustainable development of social economy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a mountain torrent disaster risk evaluation method based on the multi-state system theory, and is a hydrological evaluation method for disaster prevention and mitigation. Background technique [0002] Mountain torrent disasters refer to disasters that cause heavy losses to the national economy and people's lives and property due to the sudden rise and fall of floods caused by rainfall in hilly areas, as well as mudslides, landslides, and collapses caused by mountain torrents. Our country has a large area of ​​hills, complex natural geology and geomorphological conditions, coupled with the impact of human activities, resulting in frequent occurrence of mountain torrent disasters, seriously restricting the economic development of mountainous areas. Due to the vast area, various types and complex causes of mountain torrent disaster prevention and control in my country, the prevention and control of mountain torrent disasters needs...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q50/265Y02A10/40
Inventor 雷晓辉廖卫红唐姗姗蔡思宇张利敏孟现勇王超蒋云钟
Owner CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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