Posterior probability distribution calculation method and system for mountain fire disaster failure in power network

A technology of posterior probability distribution and failure probability distribution, applied in calculation, complex mathematical operations, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as inability to accurately analyze the risk of mountain fire disasters in power grids, and achieve high practical value, convenient operation, and clear principles

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-01-04
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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  • Abstract
  • Description
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The invention provides a method and system for calculating the posterior probability distribution of power grid mountain fire disaster faults, which are used to solve the existing technical problems that cannot accurately analyze the risk of power grid mountain fire disasters

Method used

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  • Posterior probability distribution calculation method and system for mountain fire disaster failure in power network
  • Posterior probability distribution calculation method and system for mountain fire disaster failure in power network
  • Posterior probability distribution calculation method and system for mountain fire disaster failure in power network

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Embodiment 1

[0034] The method for calculating the posterior probability distribution of the grid mountain fire disaster fault in the embodiment of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0035] S1: Statistics of transmission line mountain fire trip data under different mountain fire disaster conditions; analysis of the relationship between the key elements of transmission line faults and the number of mountain fire trips; elements related to mountain fire trips (including but not limited to: number of fire points, precipitation, wind speed , relative humidity, etc. Since the factors associated with wildfire tripping may vary in different regions, here are just a few general factors that may be related to wildfire tripping).

[0036] S2: Construct the fault probability distribution function of the transmission line relevant with a plurality of fault probability distribution parameters;

[0037] S3: Obtain the prior probability distribution of each failure probability distrib...

Embodiment 2

[0044] A method for calculating the posterior probability distribution of a power grid mountain fire disaster fault in this embodiment includes:

[0045] S1: Calculated the mountain fire trip data of 500kV and above transmission lines of a power grid from 2012 to 2018, and calculated the number of fire points in the 5km corridor of each 500kV transmission line according to the fire point data of the University of Maryland Mountain Fire Database, as follows figure 2 shown.

[0046] S2: According to the relationship between the number of fire points and the line mountain fire trip, the logistic distribution function is selected to fit the relationship between the number of fire points and the line mountain fire trip, the formula is as follows:

[0047]

[0048] In the formula, T is the number of fire points in the transmission line corridor; α and β are the two parameters of the distribution function; P is the trip probability of line mountain fire.

[0049] S3: Since there...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a posterior probability distribution calculation method and a system for the hill fire disaster fault of a power network. The method comprises the following steps: the hill fire tripping data of a transmission line under different hill fire disaster conditions are counted; the quantitative relationship between the key factors of transmission line fault and hill fire tripping is analyzed; fault probability distribution functions of transmission lines related to multiple fault probability distribution parameters are constructed; a priori probability distribution of each fault probability distribution parameter is obtained, and random values are extracted from the priori probability distribution repeatedly and independently for verification to train the model; and iterate to the model stationary; the posterior probability distribution of hill fire disaster is obtained by taking several groups of stochastic values as samples after the model is stationary. The invention can quickly obtain the posterior distribution of the hill fire fault probability of the transmission line, which plays an important role in guiding the risk analysis of large-scale mountain fire disaster.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power grid protection, in particular to a method and system for calculating the posterior probability distribution of power grid mountain fire disaster faults. Background technique [0002] Mountain fires reduce air insulation, which can easily cause mountain fire trips on power transmission lines. In recent years, the number of mountain fire disasters in my country has increased sharply. When a mountain fire trip occurs on multiple transmission lines at the same time, it will easily lead to grid instability, especially with the current UHV transmission line put into operation, which poses a serious threat to the safe and stable operation of the large power grid. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out risk analysis of multiple faults of power grid under wildfire disaster. [0003] Calculation of posterior probability distribution of power grid wildfire disaster fault is a necessary basis for power grid risk analysi...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/18G06Q10/0635G06Q50/06
Inventor 陆佳政郭俊简洲徐勋建方针李波
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER
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