The invention discloses a cCoal-to-electricity power load prediction method based on an ARIMA model

Abstract

The invention relates to a coal-to-electricity power load prediction method based on an ARIMA model. The method is technically characterized by comprising the following steps: step 1, according to a scatter diagram, an autocorrelation function and a partial autocorrelation function diagram of a time sequence, checking variance, trend and seasonal change rules of the diagrams by using ADF unit roots, and identifying the stability of the sequence; S; step 2, performing stabilization processing on the non-stationary sequence; s; step 3, establishing a corresponding model according to an identification rule of a time sequence model; 4, parameter estimation is carried out, and whether statistical significance exists or not is checked; S; step 5, performing hypothesis inspection, and diagnosingwhether the residual sequence is white noise or not; and 6, carrying out prediction analysis by using the verified model. According to the method, the ARIMA model is utilized to effectively predict the development condition of the ARIMA model, and finally load adjustment can be performed in a targeted manner, so that power grid load equalization is realized, and energy waste is avoided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power load forecasting, and relates to a coal-to-electricity power load forecasting method, in particular to a coal-to-electricity power load forecasting method based on an ARIMA model. Background technique [0002] In the past power system, the power adjustment of the generator was mainly used to achieve the balanced operation of the load, but this cannot be done in the smart grid, because there are too many distributed power sources, and it is very sensitive to changes in environmental factors Yes, if the system fails to achieve mutual balance between them, it may cause serious accidents, cause motor burnout or large-scale power outages, and cause serious losses to the national economy. This requires equipment powered by the power system. There is a certain amount of electric energy storage, but if the electric storage is large, it is not only technically difficult, but also reduces the efficiency of th...

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Problems solved by technology

[0002] In the past power system, the power adjustment of the generator was mainly used to achieve the balanced operation of the load, but this cannot be done in the smart grid, because there are too many distributed power sources, and it is very sensitive to changes in environmental factors Yes, if the system cannot achieve mutual balance between them, it may cause serious accidents, cause motor burnout or large-scale power outages, and cause serious losses to the national economy. This requires equipment powered by the power system. There is a certain amount of electric energy storage, but if the electric storage is large, it is not only technically difficult, but also reduces the efficiency of the operation of the entire power grid

[0003] In order to effectively control environmental pollution, my country has adopted a coal-to-electricity policy to minimize the proportion of coal burning in heating. However, in the initial stage of coal-to-electricity transformation, it may bring large fluctuations to the power grid, so We must combine the actual situation in the model, and use synchronous motors and other methods to correct the phase at a reasonable time, and the reactive components in the grid are less

[0004] At present, the waste of electric energy in our country is relatively serious. In the links of power distribution and power consumption, the power grid may not be able to operate with high efficiency, resulting in insufficient balance between supply and demand, causing serious economic losses. The main method to solve these problems is through A reasonable and effective algorithm is used to optimize the load, but there are not many studies in this area in our country. In order to maintain a dynamic balance between the power generation load and loss, a more scientific model needs to be established to meet the needs of users. , the power supply stability of the power system will not cause serious changes with external disturbances