A Hydrological Forecasting Method and System Considering Rainfall Level
A technology for hydrological forecasting and rainfall, applied in the field of advanced hydrological forecasting methods and systems, can solve problems such as inaccurate results, and achieve the effects of strong versatility, easy implementation and high efficiency
Active Publication Date: 2022-06-17
HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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Problems solved by technology
[0005] In view of the defects of the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to solve the technical problem that the existing hydrological forecasting method does not fully consider the difference of input data uncertainty under different rainfall levels, and the results are often not accurate enough
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[0085] Example: Taking the Cuntan Hydrological Station as an example, the collected hydrometeorological data and related quantitative rainfall forecast data are used to drive the hydrological model to obtain the forecast flow for 1 day, 2 days and 3 days in the forecast period. According to the rainfall classification threshold obtained by genetic algorithm optimization, the obtained forecast flow is divided into the forecast results under heavy rainfall and weak rainfall according to the rainfall of the next day (when the rainfall w≥1mm, it is heavy rainfall; the rainfall 0≤ When w≤1mm, it is weak rainfall), so as to obtain the posterior probability density function of forecast flow under heavy rainfall and weak rainfall.
[0086] figure 2 and image 3 The prior and posterior probability density maps of the forecast flow of 5,000 and 16,000 under heavy rainfall and weak rainfall, respectively, in the forecast period of 3 days. It can be seen that when the forecast flow rat...
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The invention discloses a hydrological forecast method and system considering the rainfall level, and discloses an application method of a hydrological uncertainty processor considering the rainfall level. It includes the following steps: (1) Collecting hydrometeorological data of the basin and related quantitative rainfall forecast; (2) Establishing hydrological model to obtain the forecast flow rate under different forecast periods; (3) Using genetic algorithm to determine the rainfall classification threshold; (4) According to the threshold determined in the previous step, the posterior probability density functions under heavy rainfall and weak rainfall were calculated respectively; (5) Calculation and analysis of hydrological uncertainty. The present invention proposes a method for determining the rainfall classification threshold using a genetic algorithm, uses a Gaussian mixture model to fit the marginal distribution of the measured flow and the forecasted flow, analyzes the hydrological uncertainty under the conditions of heavy rainfall and weak rainfall, and proposes a consideration The application method of hydrological uncertainty processor of rainfall level improves the application of hydrological uncertainty processor.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of hydrological forecasting, and more particularly, to a hydrological forecasting method and system considering rainfall levels. Background technique [0002] Hydrological forecasting is a technology that uses hydrological models to predict the future hydrological situation. It plays an important role in flood control, drought resistance, river basin management, hydropower generation and comprehensive utilization of water resources. Due to the uncertain factors such as input data error and model parameter error in the hydrological model calculation process, the prediction results have great uncertainty, and the risk of hydrological forecasting is ignored. Quantitative assessment and development of methods for dealing with uncertainty in hydrological forecasting. [0003] The existing hydrological uncertainty processing methods mainly include the upper and lower limit interval forecasting of runoff, the probabilistic ...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06N3/12
CPCG06Q10/04G06N3/126
Inventor 周建中王彧蓉冯快乐杨鑫方威金倩芳查港何中政贾本军武慧铃
Owner HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH