Power grid risk assessment method considering scheduling operation small probability event

Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid risk assessment method considering a scheduling operation small probability event, which comprises the steps of analyzing a system primary equipment fault and small probability event linkage mechanism, summarizing a subsequent fault mechanism considering the small probability event, and establishing a multi-fault search model considering the small probability event; adopting a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, and realizing electric power system risk assessment considering a small probability event based on a multi-fault search model consideringthe small probability event and a direct current power flow optimal load shedding algorithm. According to the method, the influence of small probability events on the reliability level of a power system is effectively quantified, and the comprehensiveness and accuracy of power grid risk assessment are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system security, and in particular relates to a method for assessing a risk of a power grid. Background technique [0002] The occurrence of small-probability events such as circuit breaker refusal to operate, CT dead zone failure, and protection refusal to operate can easily cause multiple faults and expand the scope of power system fault influence. Although the probability of small-probability events is low, with the continuous expansion of the power system scale, the probability of one-time equipment failure in the power grid rises rapidly, which makes the risk of multiple faults induced by small-probability faults rise rapidly. Due to the close proximity, multiple faults in the region may affect the power grid outside the region, which poses challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a multiple fault search model that can consider sm...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The existing research on small-probability events mainly focuses on the theoretical research of small-probability event probability assessment modeling. From the aspects of relay protection devices and action principles, and comprehensively considering the influence of hardware, software, equipment aging, and human factors, Monte Carlo sampling and Markov state space method have established a relatively complete reliability evaluation model for protection hidden faults, focusing on the evaluation of the failure probability of the protection system itself, the search for multiple faults in the power grid caused by small probability events, and the risk of small probability faults to the system. There is still little research on the impact of horizontal

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