Power grid wind power prediction correction method under extreme weather conditions

Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid wind power prediction correction method under extreme weather conditions, which comprises the steps of starting a correction process through extreme weather information contained in conventional weather forecast, identifying, optimizing and correcting numerical weather forecast based on an extreme weather event, judging an extreme weather type, performing windspeed prediction one-way deviation correction if the weather is strong wind, fitting an actual power characteristic curve to optimize the wind resource-power conversion model, if the weather type is acold wave, directly fitting the actual power characteristic curve to optimize the wind resource-power conversion model, correcting the wind power prediction of the power grid under extreme weather conditions by combining environmental protection setting and self-grid-connection setting, and finally outputting a correction result. The power grid wind power prediction correction method under the extreme weather condition can continuously improve the wind power prediction level and bring the wind power prediction result into the day-ahead power balance arrangement better to provide support.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind power forecasting, in particular to a method for forecasting and correcting wind power power grids under extreme weather conditions. Background technique [0002] With the continuous construction of wind farms and the increase of wind power installed capacity year by year, the reliable operation of wind turbines is becoming more and more important. It will not only determine the economic benefits of wind farms, but also affect the safe and stable operation of the power grid as a whole. Wind turbines are installed outdoors, and extreme weather is the main reason for interfering with their normal operation. Severe meteorological disasters may even cause failures. [0003] After years of research and practice in wind power forecasting, the accuracy of forecasting has been significantly improved, and it has been gradually incorporated into the day-ahead dispatching plan of the power system. In principle, the powe...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The power prediction model currently widely used in the wind power industry is based on the calculation of wind resources based on numerical weather forecasting, and then calculates the predicted power, without considering the impact of extreme weather on the operation of wind turbines

Existing research mainly aims to improve the accuracy of power forecasting under normal circumstances, and there are relatively few studies on power forecasting deviations caused by special events such as extreme weather.

The unplanned power change caused by the protective shutdown of wind turbines in extreme weather will have a serious impact on the provincial power grid's current power balance and reserve reservation, and affect the execution of dispatch plans

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