Lightning loss prevention and control method based on probability early warning

Abstract

A thunderbolt loss prevention and control method based on probability early warning aims to predict the thunderbolt probability under the thunder and lightning climate condition and reasonably adjust the power transmitted on important power transmission channels with high transmission capacity and close line arrangement so as to avoid economic loss generated after a connecting line is thunder and lightning. According to the method, firstly, a Bayesian network is used for carrying out thunderbolt probability early warning on a power transmission line, then lightning stroke risks are quantified into economic losses, the economic losses and regulation and control costs are combined into risk costs, and the minimum risk costs are used as an objective function to determine the specific amount of adjustment power. According to the invention, a balance point can be found between regulation and control cost and direct loss, and the cost of active lightning protection in a regulation and control mode is effectively reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system risk and prevention and control, and specifically designs a lightning loss prevention and control method based on probability early warning. Background technique [0002] Lightning activities occur frequently in most areas of my country, and lightning strikes are the main cause of transmission line trips. Therefore, when some important transmission channels are located in areas with high lightning activities and complex terrain, lightning strikes may cause multiple trips and other serious power grid accidents. The risk exists objectively. The cost of completely shutting down the tie line in lightning weather is too high, but once a lightning trip event occurs without stopping the line, it will not only cause direct economic losses, but also due to important line failures, the power flow will shift, which may cause Serious cascading failures are equally costly. [0003] The existing lightning protectio...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Existing methods consume a lot of manpower and financial resources no matter in terms of labor or hardware, and can only make a similar 0 / 1 choice of stopping / stopping the contact line when the thunder and lightning weather comes, and such choices are prone to appear In extreme cases, if the forecast is wrong, it may lead to unnecessary outage or be struck by lightning after normal operation, resulting in major economic losses

[0004] In terms of existing research, domestically, a classification model for judging the occurrence of cloud-to-ground lightning has been established by selecting appropriate thunderstorm prediction feature quantities and using machine learning methods. However, this research can only give the occurrence of thunderstorms, not specific probability value

[0005] At present, the research on lightning prediction still focuses more on the research on the mechanism of lightning occurrence, and seldom involves mining and analysis at the data level.

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