Wind measurement data wind speed correction method based on probability distribution transfer

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind measurement data wind speed correction method based on probability distribution transfer. The method comprises the steps that firstly, statistical description is carried out on wind speed through a Weibull distribution function; then, the wind speed probability distribution estimated values of an actual measurement year long-time meteorological station, an actual measurement year wind field observation station, a representative year long-time meteorological station and a representative year wind field observation station corresponding to the ith sequence number are respectively calculated; finally, the wind speed is actually measured by the actual measurement year wind field observation station corresponding to the ith sequence number according to hourly wind speed data and the probability distribution estimated values, and the correction wind speed of the representative year wind field observation station corresponding to the ith sequence number is calculated through a probability distribution identical difference value transfer method or a probability distribution identical multiple proportion transfer method. According to the probability distribution transfer method for wind speed correction, the defect that common correlation coefficients in an existing correlation analysis class method are too low and have to be used for correction is overcome, and the method can be suitable for wind speed correction under the conditions that the distance of project sites of an inshore or offshore wind plant and the like and a long-time meteorological bench-mark station is too far or the correlation of the existing method is poor.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a probability distribution transfer method for wind speed correction of wind measurement data, and belongs to the technical field of wind energy resource assessment of wind farms. Background technique [0002] According to the current national and industry standards-wind power resource assessment methods for wind farms (GB / T18710-2002) and technical regulations for meteorological surveys of electric power engineering (DL / T5158-2012), in the design process of wind farms and air-cooled power plants, it is necessary to Establish a certain quantitative relationship based on the measured wind speed and direction data of the long-term weather station in the same climate zone nearby, and then correct it to obtain the representative year hourly wind speed and direction sequence of the wind farm site, or the typical year of the air-cooled power plant site and the hourly wind speed in the last 10 years The wind direction sequence is used for ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0025] Therefore, the correction method of wind vector correlation analysis is also difficult to be popularized and applied as a universal method

[0026] In summary, for wind farm sites or air-cooled power plant sites and long-term meteorological reference stations in the same climate zone nearby, no matter whether monthly correlation analysis or wind vector correlation analysis is used for correction, the correlation coefficient is too low or even distorted. Wind speed sector correlation, on the surface, can make the correlation coefficient significantly improved and "looks beautiful", but it is essentially a linear correlation analysis of wind speed "categorical, hierarchical and aggregated", not a true correlation in the strict sense, even so, In engineering practice, there may still be the reality that the correlation coefficient of individual sectors is too low but has to be corrected based on it

Moreover, the purpose of correcting the wind measurement data at the project site is not for real-time forecasting, but only to obtain a whole year's data that can represent the local long-term average wind resource status or the wind condition data for the last 10 years that need to be reconstructed year by year. There is no need to pursue the so-called strict correlation between the so-called "simultaneous moment" and "same time" of wind speeds in the two places. In fact, such an approach is almost futile in reality.

[0027] Therefore, the existing correlation analysis methods have the common defect that the correlation coefficient is too low but has to be used for correction

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