Multi-basin real-time intelligent water quality predication method and system

A water quality prediction and watershed technology, applied in prediction, general water supply saving, special data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of prediction accuracy discount, influence prediction accuracy, uncertainty factors, etc., to improve speed and accuracy, improve accuracy performance, improve accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2015-01-28
广东省环境监测中心
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Problems solved by technology

Because there is no mature theoretical basis for their selection, it can only be given by experience, and its application is affected by too many uncertain factors.
[0007] At the same time, the overall distribution of the connection weights and thresholds of the NARX neural network determines the effect of data fitting, but the initial weights and thresholds of the current network are randomly generated, and there is no basis for selection
[0008]

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  • Multi-basin real-time intelligent water quality predication method and system
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  • Multi-basin real-time intelligent water quality predication method and system

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[0151] Therefore, the specific implementation of step D3 of the present invention is as follows:

[0152] S1, suppose there are m templates in the basin pollution feature database, find the template with the shortest time length, and calculate it as the standard time length T.

[0153] S2, calculate the time length T of the remaining templates in the basin pollution feature database x , Calculate the ratio L=T / T x .

[0154] S3: According to the ratio L, perform corresponding time compression on the template. For example, the function of the template is Y=F(t), and the compressed function is Y=F(Lt). Achieve the same length of time for all time series of the basin pollution feature database.

[0155] S4, set a time length T s , T s The ratio to the standard time length T is k, k is an empirical value, generally ≥0.1

[0156] S5, when the time span of the real-time pollution time series exceeds the time length T s At the time, the DTW algorithm can be used to match the time series of t...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a multi-basin real-time intelligent water quality predication method and system. According to the multi-basin real-time intelligent water quality predication method and system, an NARX model is optimized through a genetic algorithm and a problem that earlier stage parameters of the NARX model are uncertain; a GA-NARX model is stored or called through a model storage module to predicate the multi-basin water quality condition in real time; essential data, recent data and history emergency data are performed on three-section training and accordingly an optimized GA-NARX model can basically comprise river pollution characteristics and the predication accuracy is improved; weather data replaces hydrological data and is performed on obfuscation processing and accordingly influences to the model from flow data missing are effectively solved; matching of similar pollution time sequence templates is performed through an improved DTW algorithm, a similar pollution process in the basin history is rapidly found out, experience is referred and learned, and sudden emergency accidents are accurately predicted. The multi-basin real-time intelligent water quality predication method and system can be widely applied to the water quality predication field.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of water quality prediction, in particular to a multi-watershed real-time intelligent water quality prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] Water quality prediction is a frontier work and is widely used in water environment planning, evaluation, management and scientific research. Scientific and reasonable water quality prediction is of great significance to the development and utilization of water resources, real-time understanding of the development trend of river water quality, and the formulation of water environment monitoring and protection implementation plans. With the country's emphasis on water resources protection and long-term construction and exploration accumulation, the surface water automatic monitoring network has gradually improved, and the water quality monitoring data presents the characteristics of "real-time monitoring, multiple indicators, and networking", providing a basis f...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/30
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y02A20/152
Inventor 黎如昊郭庆荣王强陈斐
Owner 广东省环境监测中心
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