Mechanical system rime varying reliability evaluating method based on dynamic Bayesian network

Abstract

The invention discloses a mechanical system time varying reliability evaluating method based on a dynamic Bayesian network. The mechanical system time varying reliability evaluating method comprises a first stage of determining model basic indexes, a second stage of structuring the structure of the Bayesian network and a third stage of updating a formula and the time varying reliability of a Monte Carlo simulation computer mechanical system according to Bayesian information. The mechanical system time varying reliability evaluating method has the advantages that a knowledge diagrammatic expression method is provided through the Bayesian network, directed diagrammatic expression can be carried out on the cause and effect probability relation between node variables, and the cause and effect probability relation can be used for uncertain knowledge expression, cause and effect reasoning, diagnosis reasoning and the like. The weak link of the reliability of the system can be effectively recognized through reasoning of the Bayesian network; the relation between components in the mechanical system becomes more visual and clear through diagrammatic display, the dynamic Bayesian network technology is applied to evaluation of the time varying reliability of the mechanical system, the multiple states and failure correlation of the mechanical system are analyzed, and a theoretical support is provided for improving the performance and the reliability of the mechanical system.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability analysis of mechanical products, and specifically relates to the technical field of time-varying reliability analysis of mechanical systems based on dynamic Bayesian networks. Background technique [0002] Due to the time dependence and complexity of operating environments such as loads, working conditions, stresses, and product characteristics, time-varying and nonlinearity are typical characteristics of modern complex systems. Research on the theory and methods of time-varying reliability of mechanical systems, explaining various complex motion phenomena in mechanical systems, and realizing safe and reliable operation of large-scale complex systems are important means to improve the performance of complex mechanical systems. Therefore, research on time-varying reliability of mechanical systems is carried out. Vital. [0003] The traditional reliability design theory ignores the influence of materi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The problem to be solved by the present invention is that since the complex mechanical system has the characteristics of "time-varying", "multiple failure modes", and "complex structure", the reliability evaluation of the mechanical system involves the mutual coupling correlation of various failure modes and the dynamic For problems related to random process coupling, traditional structural reliability analysis methods have relatively large limitations in evaluating the time-varying reliability of complex mechanical systems, and cannot solve the problem of characterizing the coupling between various failure modes and reliability prediction based on this and design issues

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