Energy planning and strategy support system under energy conservation and emission reduction goals

Abstract

The invention discloses an energy planning and strategy support system under energy conservation and emission reduction goals. The system comprises an energy demand prediction module, an energy optimization module and a scenario analysis module. The energy demand prediction module predicts terminal energy demands of departments by multiple methods through scientifically setting future social and economic development parameters; the energy optimization module takes a TIMES energy optimization model as a core, inputs data such as energy efficiency, pollutant emission factors, technical costs and the like, and performs system optimization according to a total cost minimization principle; and the scenario analysis module presets a policy goal, drives the energy optimization module to perform cyclic iteration, selects an optimal fuel and technology combination in a policy scenario, and outputs results such as an energy supply structure, an energy consumption structure, a pollutant emission structure and the like. According to the system, an evolution trend of medium-long-term energy consumption and pollutant emission of areas can be scientifically predicted, so that feasible policy goals and realization paths are proposed for energy transformation under the energy conservation and emission reduction goals.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of energy planning research, in particular to an energy planning and strategic support system under the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction. Background technique [0002] Energy planning based on energy conservation and emission reduction goals is an interdisciplinary research field in the fields of ecological economy, low-carbon economy, environmental science and energy planning. It aims to build a scientific and systematic energy planning and strategic support system, and use this tool to analyze energy conservation and emission reduction goals The degree of realization, and simulate the comprehensive impact of energy policies on the energy system, so as to propose a technically feasible, cost-optimized, and environmentally sustainable energy development path under the constraints of energy conservation and emission reduction targets. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, the Guangdong Provincial G...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] 1. The series of energy conservation and emission reduction policies that have been introduced so far lack scientific basis for quantitative analysis, lack of systematic energy consumption inventory and pollutant discharge inventory classified according to international caliber, and it is difficult to quantify the energy consumption and pollutant control responsibilities of different industries

[0005] 2. The energy-saving and emission-reduction policies issued focus on short-term nature, and lack the simulation of the evolution trend of energy consumption and pollutant discharge in the medium and long-term time range, making it difficult to answer the requirements of medium- and long-term energy planning for energy structure adjustment, total pollutant control, and energy supply It is more difficult to propose reasonable policy goals for the medium and long term

[0006] 3. It is difficult to evaluate the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction policies. When there are various energy conservation and emission reduction methods (such as carbon tax, terminal energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, nuclear power development, accelerated natural gas development, carbon capture technology, ultra-low emission technology, etc.), The introduction of a new policy and the impact of different policy combinations on energy consumption demand, energy conservation goals, pollutant emission reduction goals, social costs, etc. are unpredictable.

[0007] 4. There are problems of multiple sources and fragmentation of energy conservation and emission reduction policy goals, and the lack of integrity makes it difficult to evaluate the complex coupling and conflicts between different goals. Under multiple policy constraints and technical constraints, it is difficult to answer whether each policy goal can be achieved. to what extent

[0009] Therefore, it is of great research significance and practicality to seek an energy planning and strategic support system that can overcome the shortcomings of the current energy-saving and emission reduction policy analysis, such as the difficulty of quantitative analysis, the difficulty of realizing medium- and long-term forecasts, and the difficulty of evaluating the conflict between policy goals. value

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