Computing method for line breakage and tower fall probability model as well as device

Abstract

The invention relates to a computing method for a line breakage and tower fall probability model as well as a device. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring historical wind speeds in multiple wind directions of a to-be-measured point from a database; determining a distribution probability model matched with the historical wind speeds from prestored multiple distribution probability models; by taking the distribution probability model as a basis, respectively calculating corresponding model parameters in multiple wind directions of the distribution probability model to obtain a corresponding distribution probability model of multiple wind speeds in multiple wind directions; and by taking a preset wind load model as the basis, calculating a critical wind speed when a line breakage and tower fall accident happens; and by taking the critical wind speed and the distribution probability model of multiple wind speeds as the basis, building a line breakage and tower fall probability model. The computing method and device for the line breakage and tower fall probability model have the advantages that influence of wind direction and wind speed factors on line breakage and towerfall can be considered at the same time, and an omnidirectional line breakage and tower fall fault probability model is obtained, so that an important basis is provided for quickly carrying out prevention measures.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric power systems, in particular to a calculation method and device for a probability model of line breakage and tower collapse. Background technique [0002] The strong wind disaster is one of the outstanding problems that endanger the safe operation of the power grid, especially the overhead transmission line. In addition to easily causing wind deflection flashover faults, wind disasters are also likely to cause vicious accidents such as disconnection of towers. Considering the serious impact of the power line disconnection and tower collapse accident caused by the strong wind disaster on the power grid, scholars at home and abroad have carried out corresponding research on this, and used the exponential function to fit the relationship between the failure rate of power line disconnection and tower collapse and the maximum stress to predict The spatio-temporal evolution trend of typhoons and rains...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, the inventors of the present application found that the existing failure rate models for power line breakage and tower collapse usually assume that the wind direction is horizontal to the conductor or tower, that is, only the influence of wind speed is considered alone, and the influence of wind speed and direction correlation on transmission lines and iron towers is not considered. There are obvious differences between the obtained assessment results and the actual risk assessment.

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