Degradation equipment residual life prediction method considering multiple uncertainties

An uncertainty and life prediction technology, applied in computer-aided design, design optimization/simulation, special data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of lack of nonlinear accelerated degradation modeling and remaining life prediction methods, measurement errors, etc. The effect of small sample size and short test time

Pending Publication Date: 2021-06-01
ROCKET FORCE UNIV OF ENG
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Problems solved by technology

Solve the time-varying uncertainty of equipment degradation by establishing a degradation model based on random processes; consider the random effect of the drift coefficient in the degradation model to describe the individual differences of degraded equipment; Artifacts, measurement errors in the measurement of most covariates and degradation performance
At present, the existing methods only consider part of the multiple uncertainties, and there is a lack of related research on nonlinear accelerated degradation modeling and remaining life prediction methods considering multiple uncertainties

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  • Degradation equipment residual life prediction method considering multiple uncertainties
  • Degradation equipment residual life prediction method considering multiple uncertainties
  • Degradation equipment residual life prediction method considering multiple uncertainties

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Embodiment

[0199] Example application analysis

[0200] Taking the gyroscope in a certain type of inertial navigation system as an example, the validity of the method proposed in the present invention is verified. Considering that temperature is the main factor causing gyroscope drift, the relationship between drift degradation data and temperature stress conforms to the Aronis model. In the step stress accelerated degradation test, the threshold is set at 0.6° / h, and the step stress is 50°C, 60°C and 70°C. The gyroscope works continuously in the actual working environment, automatically records the drift degradation data every hour, and records 6 times for each stress. The test results of the six samples are as follows figure 1 shown.

[0201] According to the parameter estimation method proposed in step 4, the estimated values ​​of the unknown parameters in the model can be obtained by using the improved MLE-SIMEX method, as shown in Table 1.

[0202] Table 1 Estimated values ​​of ...

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Abstract

Aiming at the situation that long-life and high-reliability equipment lacks sufficient degradation data, the invention provides a degradation equipment residual life prediction method considering multiple uncertainties, and the method comprises a stepping accelerated degradation model based on a nonlinear diffusion process, and the model has the advantages that only a small sample size and short test time are needed. For inherent characteristics, individual differences and multiple uncertainties caused by human deviation in the process of measuring equipment performance and degradation of a degradation model, the model considers time-varying uncertainties, individual differences and performance degradation and covariable measurement uncertainties. In order to estimate the residual life of the degraded equipment, an analytic approximate solution that the nonlinear diffusion process passes through a preset threshold value under the sense of first arrival time is obtained through derivation. A maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method and a simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) method are combined to obtain an MME-SIMEX method which is used for estimating unknown parameters in a model. The effectiveness of the model provided by the invention is proved through simulation and actual cases. The result shows that the method has higher residual life estimation precision and has certain engineering practical value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability engineering, and in particular relates to a method for predicting the remaining life of degraded equipment considering multiple uncertainties. Background technique [0002] With the continuous improvement of the current design level and manufacturing process, people's demand for high-quality products is also increasing day by day, and more and more equipment with long service life and high reliability have appeared, especially in the aerospace and military fields. Due to the long test time and high test cost, the traditional residual life prediction method is difficult to be effectively applied to this kind of equipment. In order to obtain more degradation data, engineers accelerate the degradation of equipment by increasing the severity of the test environment, such as high temperature and high pressure, random vibration, etc. Therefore, accelerated degradation test has become an effective m...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F119/04
CPCG06F30/20G06F2119/04
Inventor 司小胜庞哲楠胡昌华裴洪李天梅
Owner ROCKET FORCE UNIV OF ENG
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