Icing Prediction Method and System for Transmission Lines Based on iowa Operator Combination Prediction Model
A combination of forecasting and transmission line technology, applied in forecasting, calculation, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as transmission line faults, achieve fast speed, good extrapolation, and more credible results
Active Publication Date: 2016-10-12
ANHUI UNIVERSITY +2
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However, the reality of the current power grid is that most transmission lines are overhead and exposed to the natural environment for a long time. They are vulnerable to various meteorological disasters such as wind disasters, ice disasters, floods, etc. Safe and reliable power supply has become the main goal of the operation and maintenance of the entire power transmission system
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[0033] See attached Figure 1 ~ Figure 3 , a transmission line icing prediction method based on the IOWA operator combination prediction model, which includes the following steps:
[0034] Step 1: Obtain and process the monitoring data of icing on transmission lines, the monitoring data includes historical data of influencing factors, ice thickness data and ice quality data; eliminate the uncertainty introduced by random signals in the monitoring data, and The monitoring data at unequal intervals are processed at equal intervals to obtain the regression estimation function of each data in the monitoring data;
[0035]Step 2: Use the wavelet decomposition method to decompose the regression estimation functions obtained after the intermediate interval processing in step 1 one by one, and obtain the wavelet coefficients and scale coefficients; use the wavelet coefficients and scale coefficients to obtain the overview sequence and detail sequence of the influencing factors, and th...
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The invention discloses an induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) operator combined prediction model-based transmission line icing prediction method and system. The method comprises the following steps: decomposing ice disaster influence factors and icing data one by one through wavelet decomposition, and solving a wavelet coefficient and a scale coefficient; obtaining an influence factor general picture sequence and detail sequences thereof, an icing quality general picture sequence and detail sequences thereof, and an icing thickness general picture sequence and detail sequences thereof by utilizing the wavelet coefficient and the scale coefficient, and performing nonlinear regression on each meteorological factor and each transmission line factor one by one so as to obtain icing thickness and quality fitted equations; establishing an IOWA operator-based combined prediction model for the equations, solving a combined prediction weight vector and an induced value sequence, generating general picture prediction value sequences and detailed prediction value sequences of the icing quality and thickness, and solving the wavelet coefficient and the scale coefficient; and obtaining a prediction value sequence of the icing thickness and quality by adopting a wavelet reconstruction algorithm. The icing prediction method and system have the advantages of high speed, high extrapolation property, result reliability and the like.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of ice disaster prediction for electric power transmission systems, in particular to a transmission line icing prediction method and system based on an IOWA operator combination prediction model. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the continuous development of cities and industries, the demand for electricity has increased dramatically, and large-scale power generation equipment such as hydropower, thermal power, and atomic energy are far away from cities. Especially under the pattern of "West-to-East Power Transmission" and "North-to-South Power Transmission" in China, the construction of high-voltage and large-capacity transmission lines has become an inevitable trend in the development of power transmission networks. With the continuous construction of power infrastructure, the scale of transmission lines continues to expand, and the voltage level of transmission lines is getting higher and higher....
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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/00G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 孙登第范明豪尹涛程登峰陆明罗斌潘强佟昊
Owner ANHUI UNIVERSITY