Fast bus stop delay time combination predicting method

Abstract

The invention provides a fast bus stop delay time combination predicting method which is applied to a fast bus BRT system provided with bus lanes. Necessary traffic flow information of BRT buses and social vehicles at the same road section is collected through a traffic information collection device, the information is integrated into a time series, a linear autoregression prediction to a data series is conducted firstly, a nonlinear regression analysis prediction is conducted to the acquired initial residual error through a support vector machine method with optimized parameters through a genetic algorithm, and the two detections are superimposed to acquire the final BRT vehicle stop delay. According to the fast bus stop delay time combination predicting method, on the basis of a fast transit mode, the advanced traffic information collection technology of the BRT system is fully utilized, real-time operation parameters of the complex traffic system are combined closely, the advanced data processing method is utilized, accuracy prediction to the BRT bus stop delay is achieved, and a time basis is provided for the bus priority, so that the whole operation efficiency of the fast bus system is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of bus stop time prediction technology and is used in a rapid transit BRT system, in particular to a combined numerical prediction method for the delay time of a rapid transit stop. Background technique [0002] Urban public transportation plays a positive role in relieving traffic congestion, traffic safety and traffic pollution caused by the huge traffic demand in the city. However, under the current situation, my country's urban transportation system is not perfect, the technical level is relatively backward, and the service quality is relatively low. Public transportation is at a disadvantage in the competition with many transportation methods. Through advanced software and hardware technical means, the operation efficiency and Service level is an inevitable move to solve urban traffic problems driven by public transport priority. [0003] Most foreign BRT systems are closely integrated with ITS technolo...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The problem to be solved by the present invention is: most of the BRT systems in my country are relatively low in informatization and intelligence, and cannot use advanced data processing technology to make use of the traffic information data collected by a large number of intelligent hardware facilities to predict the speed of BRT at the platform. Delays reduce the scientificity, integrity and actual operational efficiency of the control and management of the BRT system

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