Flood disaster prediction and early warning method based on QR-BC-ELM

A QR-BC-ELM, flood disaster technology, applied in neural learning methods, biological neural network models, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of complex calculation, low prediction accuracy, and one-sided feature response.

Active Publication Date: 2020-12-01
NORTH CHINA UNIV OF WATER RESOURCES & ELECTRIC POWER
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Flood models based on traditional schemes have problems such as subjective factor intervention, one-sided characteristic response, low prediction accuracy, and complex calculations.

Method used

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  • Flood disaster prediction and early warning method based on QR-BC-ELM
  • Flood disaster prediction and early warning method based on QR-BC-ELM
  • Flood disaster prediction and early warning method based on QR-BC-ELM

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Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0054] refer to figure 2 , the multi-factor index in the step S1 includes a total of 49 calculated indexes in two criterion layers and three index layers.

Embodiment 2

[0056] The risk evaluation system evaluation step of step S2 includes:

[0057] S201: Collect the maximum three-day precipitation (M3PD), topographic wetting index (TWI), river power index (SPI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from different hydrological stations as input to the model, and obtain different The degree of correlation between hydrological stations;

[0058] S202: Predict the water level change of the dependent variable observation station according to the index change of the independent variable observation station;

[0059] S203: For non-time series data, the digital elevation model (DEM), soil texture index (ST), slope index (SL) and land use pattern (LUP) of each variable site are used as input to the model, and the same indicators of the dependent site are used as output , to calculate the index features of highly correlated points;

[0060] S204: Taking distance index (DR), river power index (SPI) and socio-economic index as input, statis...

Embodiment 3

[0063] In the traditional extreme learning machine, the feature engineering of each indicator is advanced, and input to the extreme learning machine model in the form of time series data as the input matrix of the model, and the runoff is used as the output to correct the weight by means of reverse error propagation, so that Get the contribution of each indicator to the flood. In the past, when solving the least squares solution, the singular value decomposition is usually used to solve the matrix H, and then its plus sign generalized inverse is solved, and then the optimal least squares solution is solved as the training weight. Based on the above analysis, the core of extreme learning part is to H + operation.

[0064] This application extracts the feature engineering of multi-factor indicators and inputs them into the improved extreme learning model in the form of time series data to calculate the contribution of each indicator to the flood.

[0065] (1) The calculation p...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a flood disaster prediction and early warning method based on QR-BC-ELM. The invention discloses a flood early warning method, relates to the technical field of flood early warning, considers various flood causes, establishes a flood model based on an extreme learning machine and a geographic information system to simulate a flood-prone area of the Yellow River basin, and verifies the efficiency and precision advantages of the extreme learning machine relative to an artificial neural network. The learning speed of the improved extreme learning model provided by the invention is 32 times that of an artificial neural network and 1.2 times that of a traditional extreme learning model. Moreover, the noise processing capacities of the proposed orthogonal triangular decomposition extreme learning model and the full-rank decomposition extreme learning model are greatly superior to those of an artificial neural network, and the BC-ELM and the QR-ELM have great advantages in the aspects of prediction precision and prediction efficiency, and are relatively suitable for flood prediction models.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of flood early warning, in particular to a flood disaster prediction and early warning method based on QR-BC-ELM. Background technique [0002] Today, flood disaster management has entered the era of intelligence, especially the development of data science has provided experts with timely, accurate and rich disaster information and decision support. In the current form, the flood model dominated by intelligent algorithms has made considerable progress, and solutions such as cluster analysis, collaborative filtering, and regression prediction have been widely applied to flood models. Intelligent algorithms dominated by neural networks are widely used in hydrological forecasting, and are more scientific, informative, time-sensitive, and accurate than traditional solutions. Ideas such as cluster analysis and collaborative filtering break through the problems of high memory consumption and complex calculations ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06N3/04G06N3/08G06N20/00G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/0635G06N3/08G06Q50/26G06N20/00G06N3/045Y02A10/40
Inventor 刘扬刘雪梅吴慧欣杨礼波闫新庆刘明堂
Owner NORTH CHINA UNIV OF WATER RESOURCES & ELECTRIC POWER
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